Monday, March 23, 2015

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Colder Than Normal Will Continue

Good morning everyone! Sorry to break it to you but the overall pattern will stay colder than normal for the next 10 days. Spring does not want to arrive quite yet. There will be a few warm days thrown into the mix, but overall colder than normal means a lot of days in the 40's the next 7 days. 

You can see that stubborn western ridge of high pressure in the jet stream which causes colder than normal conditions over our area as the jet sinks south allowing in Canadian air..

As I have mentioned in the past, this ridge is the result of very warm water off the pacific coast. Here are the gfs ensembles high and low temps next 10 days..

You can see towards the end of the week a few 60's but overall not too warm at all. The top row is high temps the bottom row is low temps for NNJ. 

I expect this colder than normal pattern should break by the 2nd week of April in the worst case scenario. Once it breaks we then have to be on the lookout for severe weather potential heading into May. 

Could it snow again? Unfortunately yes it could given this pattern but as each day goes by its chances will diminish. 

As a huge surge of cold air pours into the east this weekend, we need to be on the lookout for a storm to develop. At this time I do not support its chances but the models have been flirting with the idea that a low pressure system develops along the cold front..

The problem is the trough will be positively tilted in orientation so for a storm to develop Saturday we need things to change. I will keep an eye on this, but at this time just expect colder than normal conditions from this weekend into next week. 

That's all for today, thanks for checking in. If things change with Saturday, you will be the first to know!

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