Good morning I haven't posted much last two days because we are at a point where we just have to wait and watch this pattern evolve. By the middle of next week all the ingredients will be on the playing field and the question will be if that can come together and produce a significant storm. As I have been saying, just because the ingredients are there it does not guarantee a storm just increases the chances. Its like cooking you need to have them come together in the perfect fashion. In any event I don't know what other ingredients a pattern would need other than what you see below..
This image is valid late next week and I highlighted several features that interest me. The NAO is key because if you get that undercutting southern jet energy to enter the USA it increases the chances the flow slows down and it merges with any northern disturbances that spins in from Canada. If nothing ends up happening then this just results in a colder than normal pattern to end March.
So now we watch the models and see if they start picking up on anything in my 6-11 day period. As you guys have seen all year, these models sometimes cant sniff anything out until a few days before. At least we know the pattern is there and that is step one to identify unsettled weather. To reiterate, any winter weather I expect will be focused on northern Mid-Atlantic into New England. Areas more to the south I still believe winter is over.