Friday, March 6, 2015

Friday Morning Summary

Well after it is all said and done it was a decent storm. Extremely hard to forecast but decent. My preliminary map was not on point and I did have to make a adjustment to my final map so that def hurts my grading for this storm. With that being said the final map did ok.

Here are snowfall reports..



A solid 4-8 in NNJ extending into southern CT and Mass. Notice the sharp cutoff to the north. To the south we had amounts up to a foot but that was very localized. In general though a lot of amounts were over 6 so I guess the 6-12 did ok. I did not expect the very high amounts on Cape Cod, that was a surprise..

My map again..



So overall it didn't do that bad but based on the changes I had to make Wednesday night I give myself another C on this one. Its been a tough winter to forecast that's for sure but hopefully I have been more consistent that other outlets that make 10 different forecasts. 

So it remains cold though Saturday then here comes the warm up. The ridge over AK breaks down and in floods the pacific air next week..


However, not so fast my friend. I do not beleive this is a prolonged warm up and instead is more of a false spring. The reason is all long term signals strongly point to that ridge over AK building again and pouring arctic air back into the county after next week.


Now remember the sun is stronger this time of year so average temps go up in general but for areas north of Balt/Wash and even Phili winter might not be over here as we head to mid and late March. We really are going to have to be on guard ESPECIALLY if we get a negative NAO. You guys should enjoy the warmer air next week while it lasts. 

Stay tuned for updates and thanks for following.

4 comments:

  1. Beware those Ides of March. If I'm reading the 06Z GFS and 00Z CMC right, something comes up from the southwest and then lands off shore and strengthens not far from 40/70, in the March 15 to 17th range. Looks like a trough from northern Canada will be sweeping east right around the same time. From what little I can tell from the freebie 00Z Euro tidbits, they also see that trough. But for now, that's all just wx model fantasy land. For now, I'm gonna enjoy the upcoming 40 deg (relative) warmth! Once I make up for the hour of lost sleep, spring those clocks ahead this weekend. Jim G

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  2. Quick look at the updated telecon forecasts -- ensemble runs hint that NAO might stay in the + zone thru 3rd week of March, but PNA trending back to + territory around the 15th. And the AO will start to weaken, some ensemble runs have it negative by the 16th. Arctic air might be warming, but w/ neutral or neg AO, might spill over the vortex brim more easily -- thus wouldn't need as much EPO forcing to propel it southward, as we had throughout February. Might want to keep the shovels and ice scrapers out for a while. Jim G

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    Replies
    1. By Day 9+ very strong signals for stormy pattern..we might get a Hudson bay block or negative NAO..I am very impressed with all model ensemble runs this far out.

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  3. Nah, it's over. It has to be over. Because I am done lol.

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