Friday, March 20, 2015

Friday Morning Storm Update: On Track, Video Gives a Play by Play

Good morning everyone! Our storm is now moving into the area and things remain pretty much on track. As I mentioned in my quick note last night the models did trend south a little which means the snow will last a little longer further south. I don't expect much changes to my accumulation map except for maybe taking the 3-5 out of southern RI and Mass and pulling the 3-5" band 15 miles further south in NJ. I kept video pretty short, but here are some pointers:

  • Snow breaks out by mid morning for most areas
  • As we approach the lunch hour it really starts to pick up in intensity
  • The heavier snow should last till early evening
  • The overall snow stops later tonight
  • Snow will change to rain for areas south of Philadelphia and mix with sleet in the Philadelphia region 
  • To the north things should stay mostly snow throughout the day 
  • If you are below 500ft and especially near an urban area do not expect much accumulation on the roads (slushy)
    • your snow will mostly be on the grass
  • The prime spot to be in my opinion is over 700ft in North Jersey- that's where you will see the largest impacts as surface temps will be colder 

Enjoy the video!


6 comments:

  1. Dearest Weather Willy,

    The question on my mind is should I be leaving work early today? I'm over in the Parsippany area.

    -Vince

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    1. Vince,

      If you don't like any winter driving conditions leave by early afternoon. Road crews should do well with this but that will be brunt of Storm when we get to this afternoon into the eve rush hour.

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  2. What are you thinking on the road accum for the Totowa are willy

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    1. missed your comment, whats it looking like there as of 5pm?

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  3. About 3.5 inches in Montclair. Not bad . . . right up to Friday AM the models led me to think more like 5. But then again, it was about 32 deg down here -- I was thinking the 10-1 snow to water ratio, but at 32 deg, maybe it was actually a bit lower. I see that the higher elevation places nearby did get around 5 in (but that's all fluff, so to speak). Long range CMC and GFS seem to imply that another inch or so could happen over the next 10 days. This was an interesting winter, for sure. Very cold -- to be honest, all the long range forecasts I saw in November missed this, except for Willy. Most everyone said above average snow, pretty good there. There was not a 'storm to remember' (other than the near-miss blizzard that veered to Boston) . . . just a lot of 3 to 8 inch things that kept coming every 3 to 5 days, with Arctic blasts in between. Yup, not exactly Boston, but this was still definitely WINTER, something you can look back on and feel good about for having survived. Hats off all the more to Buffalo and Boston. Jim G

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    1. Yeah it was a little less than I expected, I never bought the 5-8 idea but the storm really did hit areas further south pretty hard. Next 10 days stay very active so we will have to be on the lookout but I do not see anything big on the maps at this time. Thanks for the complement on the Winter forecast! It was not perfect but the temperature idea worked nicely. Yes we did NOT have our big storm! A lot of snow but no storms to remember I guess that was the only let down for me. We at least have a few last ditch efforts to follow next 10 days but overall if this is the end of winter none of us can complain. Thanks for following!

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