Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Final Forecast for Tomorrow's Storm

1pm commentary. I like what i have right now. Been getting a lot of questions on particular amounts so here is my city by city thinking:

NYC 4"
Morristown NJ 5"
Sussex NJ 3"
Edison NJ 6"
Philadelphia 8"
Balt/Wash 6-8"
Providence RI 2-4"
Hartford CT 2"

Local areas can see up to a Foot.  Very tricky forecast, tune in tonight at 8.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

The numbers are crunched and the final forecast is out. There will be no changes to this forecast from here on out, just commentary. A frontal boundary will stall over our region later tonight as a low pressure center forms along the boundary and rides northeast out to sea. As this boundry establishes itself the warm air currently over the forecast area will be pushed away. This transition will result in some mixed precipitation to start for central and southern zones late tonight, before turning to all snow by Thursday morning. Once the snow starts Thursday morning it will only pick up in intensity before ending on Thursday night. There will be a wide range of accumulations throughout the area, with the most accumulation expected more south with this system. I expect a sharp cutoff of precip in northern counties especially in the 2-3 inch areas. For northern parts of the 3-6 inch zone, this is going to have to be watched very closely but I think that range covers all outcomes. Here is my final forecast map..



I will have additional commentary on twitter from time to time and also a update tonight around 8pm on this blog. Be sure to tune into that as I will review any changes in model guidance.

5 comments:

  1. Sorry for you guys up north but we are grinning down here in South Jersey!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Funny because the 3-6" area is what I consider to be mostly Central Jersey and everything is north or south. BTW, seems like Bridgewater is getting robbed once again.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bridgewater will do fine your just not getting a foot.

      Delete
  3. Quite ballsy Weatherwilly, nailing down particular cities to the inch.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Haha only because people ask, use the map for the forecast tho the ranges cover the volitility. Very hard forecast!

      Delete