Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Tuesday Night Weather Discussion: Clarifying Storm Threats

So the question on everyone's minds is twofold. Will it snow Thursday and are we getting a big storm Monday? Tonight I will show you what is on the field and by tomorrow morning I will start to hone in on the details. 

Starting with Thursday- as I mentioned in my video yesterday, I expect the storm system to skirt the coast. That means I expect accumulating snow in northeast areas of New England and light snow in the northern mid-Atlantic. I think for areas near the coast in Maine and Mass 6 inches is not out of the question. For most other areas expect 2-5 inches. If I have time i'll draw out a map tomorrow for this threat. I still think we can see a last second shift further west. 

Moving on to early next week we have a very interesting pattern setting up.

Ahead of early next week notice the nice strong high pressure over greenland (negative NAO) and the low pressure area in eastern Canada. These are to favorable components to storm development.

As we head along to Sunday, the pattern evolves more..

Notice now the small white and blue circle out in the plains. That is now a disturbance in the northern jet stream that is diving down towards the coast. The block we have up in Greenland still along with that low pressure lingering in eastern Canada favors the amplification of this disturbance..

You can now see above we have a deep upper level low pressure system that is forming just off the east coast. Notice how models are hinting that this low pressure system can "cut off" from the jet stream. This is why everyone is starting to talk about this storm threat. We have the potential for a storm to develop and stall out somewhere along the coast. With high pressure to the north, there is ample cold air in place and the storm is not allowed to escape easily. You can see this below..

Before everyone gets too excited everything has to come together perfectly for this to become the "big one" For example, if we have another disturbance coming in behind the initial one trying to redevelop off the coast it will try to "kick" the first storm more off shore as it deepens. You can see evidence of this below as a second disturbance in the plains trys to push it off shore..

Bottom line the potential is there and at this point it is favorable we see at least light snow. Otherwise we need more data before we jump the gun here. Lets see how this evolves.

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