Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion

I went into great detail yesterday on the remarkable weather pattern in place. This pattern will include record breaking cold this weekend and multiple storm threats. I am getting a better handle on what threats I believe will impact the region more than others.

To start off, threat 1 on Thursday will not effect our area with any significant snow. The only potential region that gets accumulating snow should be eastern Mass and the cape as a clipper dives down from Canada but develops too far off shore..

Moving on we have yet another large disturbance diving down just in time for the end of the weekend..

This is a massively cold air mass and at this time it appears this has at least a better chance of developing into a storm that is closer to the coast compared to the first..

Since the air is so cold even a few tenths of an inch of liquid would cause several inches of wind blown powder to fall Saturday night and Sunday. However, I am not fully sold on this threat either. There is not much blocking in place ahead of this disturbance which means we need this thing to really come in steep and close off fast over the mid Atlantic. At this time that is not going to occur. Again the only place that might have a chance at decent snow would be yup you guessed it eastern Mass. So bottom line I am not overly excited here but acknowledge things can still change. 

The third storm threat I think is still the most compelling and although it is over a week off I like the pattern ahead of it. The timing of this threat is still not certain as it all depends on when that sub tropical jet wants to break into the southern USA but the point is best simplified in the image below..

You can see a low developing near the gulf and cold air ahead of it over the northeast. If the upper air pattern ends up being optimal this can be a set up for a significant storm as you have warm moist air overrunning stubborn cold air that is locked in place. The jury is still out on this but I want to point out the potential for sometime next week. 

We will evaluate these threats more as time goes on. 

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