Thursday, February 19, 2015

Thursday Morning Discussion: Thoughts Same from Yesterday, Eyeing Wednesday

Not going to add much to my post yesterday about the brutal cold and snow changing to rain this weekend.I really do not think it is going to be a huge deal as temps will rise above freezing but I question how much liquid will actually fall. I do not expect a big ice storm or anything like that at this time as it appears any ice that falls will change to rain. On the back end however, temperatures will crash again well below freezing on Sunday. I will comment more on Sat night situation as I see necessary but for now, nothing to write home about. 

I will go into this in more details as well as the days go on but I am eyeing Wednesday for our next shot at snow. Here is a map I just put together..

What we have evidence of is a decently strong northern shortwave or disturbance diving down into the country on Tuesday. A few things interest me as this is going on.

  • We have what appears to be an active subtropical jet stream along with some left over pacific energy hanging back over the west.
    • we will have to see how much of this wants to eject eastward and potentially phase with this northern shorwave.
  • Not a true negative NAO but there is a small block that is projected to develop in the eastern atlantic which could help amplify things along the east
  • There is evidence of a vortex setting up around 50/50 but that detail is very foggy right now
  • In the best case scenario for snow, a low forms in the gulf and moves up the coast 
Bottom line, its a long shot this far out but it is the only chance I see at a storm in the next 10 days. The European and its ensembles are hinting at it as well..

European Model: Shows low developing off of coast stemming from the Gulf.

There is support from its ensemble as well..

Half the fun is tracking potential storms so we will have to stay on top of this. 

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