Saturday, February 21, 2015

Saturday Evening Update

Well we have a snowstorm underway out there and for some areas it looks like it will stay snow. When all is said and done several inches will fall for most areas with up to 6+. Expect it all to be over as we get past  midnight. Some areas near the coast do change over at the end to ice and rain but it looks like from I95 north and west it stays snow. Originally this system looked like snow changing to ice and rain for most areas. The reason things have changed is due to pressing high pressure from the northwest along with a ridge of high pressure over the southeast  becoming weather. This allowed cold air to hold in the upper levels. I would have broke this down more over the least few days but I have been away skiing as I mentioned before. 

There is still a shot we see a storm on Wednesday but the chances are diminishing at this point. We have a strong disturbance coming through on the southern stream but nothing that looks like it wants to phase with it at this point. It is essential here that we wait for the current storm to pass as it will have drastic implications on the upper air pattern ahead of Wednesday. Upper air patterns steer storms and disturbances in the upper atmosphere as well as influence the placement of surface high an flow pressure.  For example, if this current storm blows up in the right spot near eastern Canada we can have more amplification along the east coast allowing a potential phase.

Thanks for checking in, bittern cold air returns again tomorrow and lasts all week. When I am home tomorrow night I will start having more details in these posts. 

I'll have quick commentary tomorrow morning and look at snow totals. I wish I had the time to make a map as its always interesting to see how my forecasts pan out. I guess my original call was 2-5" from my post two days ago which I tweaked upwards this morning. 

Hopefully there will be a next one!


3 comments:

  1. About 2 inches on the ground in Montclair and gone over to frz rain. Some warming upper atmos flows, maybe. Radar tracks suggest (to my untrained eyeballs) that this one is also further to the east than expected, like the Blizzard. Seeing some bands headed towards LI, CT and RI right now.

    Need to make a correction -- I said in a previous comment that EWR was now at 20 1/2 in of season snow. Wrongo, sorry -- that's the normal for this date. Actual is about 27.2. So Mr. Willy, you are right about above avg snowfall in northern NJ region. But just not the 60 inches from this time last year.

    The usual forecasters are presently disregarding a Wednesday storm (but things do change quickly at this time of year, admittedly). Freebie models suggesting dusting to an inch. But yikes, get to out next weekend and beyond, and some scary stuff appears!!! March and that lion, look out! I have studied Zen koans a little, and I do recall one about a "snow lion" . . . Jim G sends

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  2. EWR snowfall now up to 29.8 inch vs 20.9 normal. Definitely above normal. Good Arctic telecon analysis on aer.com, sez that winter has two, two and a half good weeks left around here. PNA seems to be going neg right now, but EPO has another 10 days or so. That Pacific ridge ain't going out w/o some kicking and screaming. Jim G sending

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    1. Great point on that Pacific ridge. That is the key variable to watch as it is driving this whole pattern. There should be a warm up around March 1st but whether or not it is a long term warm up all depends on what happens in the pacific. The models are not completely sold on that -EPO going away so quickly. Looks like some areas will be slightly above average with snowfall but I need 140% to hit my winter forecast. We need a big winter storm to do that. Do not count out the mid week system yet. I know its not likely but the factors are there to produce a storm. Thanks for following.

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