Monday, February 23, 2015

Monday Morning Weather Discussion

Good morning everyone. I am back into the normal routine this week so I will have more detail in my posts. Today I want to focus on the weather pattern heading into March as well as what would have to happen for a storm to occur on Wed/Thursday. At this time no storm is coming and no models show a storm. I will show what would have to change if any of you snow lovers out there are still interested in some action.

At this time all model guidance basically shows this out to sea solution..

This is due to no phase of the northern and southern jet streams, so what you end up with is a south jet stream wave heading off the coast.

The image below shows the lack of phasing of the jet streams. Notice how I pointed out how there is energy on the field, it just does not what to come together. 

Main things to focus on in this image:

  • The southern stream gets ahead of the northern stream causing the two not to phase
  • There are some positive variables on the field however with a ridge out west and a small block in the eastern Atlantic.
  • These factors could influence a potential phase if they steer and amplify the jet stream properly
    • An example of this would be a stronger block than modeled in the eastern atlantic or that ridge out west becoming more amplified
    • This would slow down the flow allowing the two disturbances to potentially combine
What is my point here? Although not likely, we can still not rule out a storm for Wed/Thursday due to the fact the right ingredients are on the field. We just would need them to come together properly and small changes to this upper air pattern can do that. Lets see how this play out next few days.

On to the longer range, there has been strong evidence that the cold weather pattern relaxes in the east as we get to March 1st.

The image above shows this. We have the ridge out west breaking down and no high pressure over Greenland. This allows a big ridge of high pressure to build in the southeast United States which would bring in much warmer temps. Notice however that the ridge over AK is still there. That is called our -EPO pattern and although models have hinted that it could back off they are still unclear. I would have to see more evidence of this ridge breaking down more before I am sold on a long duration warm up in March and winter being completely over. At this time I am not ready to say that. 

Thanks for checking in. 

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