In my video last night I outlined many of my ideas so I will be brief today. Basically as I have been saying the storm this weekend will target RI, CT, Mass, and Maine. For NYC and surrounding areas I only expect light snow. Maybe some small accumulations in the city Sat night.
Here is updated model projection..
I showed last night how the upper level low was influencing this surface outcome. Accumulations of over a foot are def in the picture here for areas near the cost up there. Very high ratio snow.
So moving on to Wednesday of next week, I have been discussing the threat for a storm. In the video last night I explained a few interesting factors behind this storm. Here is a summary of those factors below..
First look at the three numbered circles. These are disturbances in all three jet streams. All these disturbances are going to try to consolidate in into a big through by the time we get to Wednesday. Wheather or not they actually all phase remains to be seen but a phase between #2 and #3 looks more probable at this point. The bigger point here is that big black circle north of the lakes. I basically circled an area that is between two polar waves. This is mimicking a negative NAO by causing a nice confluence zone which causes high pressure to hold firm in the eastern third of the country ahead of this storm.This was pointed out by meteorologist @ on twitter.
You can see that high pressure here..
This forces the storm to develop south of the high pressure..
Ok so we have a southern trend now! That is the opposite of the northern trend all winter that is the good news! The bad news? Well, we can end up getting no storm at all if this gets too far suppressed to the south. The model runs last night started to suggest this thing get too suppressed but we still need to wait for trends.
I still see the best potential so far this year for accumulating snow in the NYC and Phili metro areas from this if it pans out. Since this storm potential has been my pet project since my post on Monday I will really stay on top of this. Hopefully this suppression trend does not continue- we will see. It always is a fine line between a warm storm, a snowstorm and no storm at all.