Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion: No Big Warmup Coming, Interior New England Could See Snow

Good morning all you weather fans. As we continue to progress through this relativly snowless winter the same broken record repeats. When will it snow? Well I discussed over last few days how we do need a critical component which is that high pressure area over Greenland as it locks in the cold air and prevents storms from cutting inland. Over the last few days the model trends have continued with their signal of that developing over the next 10 days.

Here is the updated European..

Notice the reds near Greenland. That would be a developing -NAO and this is valid for next week. So we got some encouragement there. At least we see a trend developing here. In fact, I mentioned the models have backed up on a big warm-up. Here are temperature departures from normal in the 5-10 day peroid..


Now the 10-15


No blowtorch as some expected. So now we keep waiting as more days a weeks of our winter season pass. 

So lets discuss a potential snow threat for interior New England for Sunday night into Monday..


What we have above is a storm developing along a front on Sunday night. The set-up actually looks like it could be ideal ahead of this storm for all regions but the problem is an initial area low low pressure north of Michigan on Saturday and Sunday brings a warm front into our area, thus destroying the cold air. The red line I drew below shows this.

This prevents cold air from staying in place which is a red flag for anyone outside of interior new England for potential snow.

Aside from this one factor, many other parts would have been there..

Instead, as that shortwave or kink in the jet stream as seen above swings through and some sub tropical energy try's to phase with it at the last second near new England along the front. We will keep watching this, but as of now Folks in central and western Maine, VT and NH are in the snow potential zone.

The waiting continues...hang in there snow lovers.  

2 comments:

  1. Love your blog but I am a snow hater! So I have to readjust every time you seem glum about the forecast. If Weather Willy is glum, then I am happy lol.

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