Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Wednesday Morning: Focusing on Two Periods Next Week

Good morning. I am trying to determine how and if it will snow next week. Today I want to give you a more focused look on the two periods I am looking at.

Period 1: Monday night into Tuesday

Light snow possible for snow areas

In this situation as seen below we have a disturbance of wave in the southern stream try to attack the cold high to the north. This results in an overrunning type of precipitation event where a few inches are possible for many areas of NJ into southern NE. This is a event that I am gaining confidence on. We will keep an eye on it over the next few days


Moving on to later in the period I am focusing on the Thursday and Friday time frame for a potential bigger storm. The exact details are extremely unclear so it is impossible to say rain vs snow vs mixed precip but it has potential to pack a punch for the area. 

I am going to use ensemble guidance because it is way too far off to use a operational model. I pointed out below the ingredients that could cause a storm but again things are still very unclear. We need to wait.


In terms of the surface models are showing a coastal low develop including the European ensemble as seen below.




Something that is worth keeping an eye on. Let's focus on Monday and Tuesday first. I like the pattern and I think it will eventually deliver. The brutal cold continues this week, especially tomorrow morning Bundle up!




2 comments:

  1. I'm driving across the PA turnpike friday afternoon and coming back sunday afternoon. Is there anything that you see that should make me reconsider this drive? (snow wise)

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    Replies
    1. At this point do not alter plans we are too far away. Keep checking in tho and I will keep you updated. Just know there is a shot at bad weather for that time period.

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