Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Wednesday Morning: Focusing on Two Periods Next Week

Good morning. I am trying to determine how and if it will snow next week. Today I want to give you a more focused look on the two periods I am looking at.

Period 1: Monday night into Tuesday

Light snow possible for snow areas

In this situation as seen below we have a disturbance of wave in the southern stream try to attack the cold high to the north. This results in an overrunning type of precipitation event where a few inches are possible for many areas of NJ into southern NE. This is a event that I am gaining confidence on. We will keep an eye on it over the next few days

Moving on to later in the period I am focusing on the Thursday and Friday time frame for a potential bigger storm. The exact details are extremely unclear so it is impossible to say rain vs snow vs mixed precip but it has potential to pack a punch for the area. 

I am going to use ensemble guidance because it is way too far off to use a operational model. I pointed out below the ingredients that could cause a storm but again things are still very unclear. We need to wait.

In terms of the surface models are showing a coastal low develop including the European ensemble as seen below.

Something that is worth keeping an eye on. Let's focus on Monday and Tuesday first. I like the pattern and I think it will eventually deliver. The brutal cold continues this week, especially tomorrow morning Bundle up!


  1. I'm driving across the PA turnpike friday afternoon and coming back sunday afternoon. Is there anything that you see that should make me reconsider this drive? (snow wise)

    1. At this point do not alter plans we are too far away. Keep checking in tho and I will keep you updated. Just know there is a shot at bad weather for that time period.