Saturday, January 31, 2015

Updated Forecast and Snow Map Out at 1:30pm

Need to actually head into work this morning for a client meeting but I will have the updated forecast out early this afternoon when I have time to draw the map. After looking at the latest model guidance it is very likely that factors behind the northern trend I discussed in my video last night will be reflected in my map. What will that mean..

  • Central NJ and South Including Philadelphia
    • You are likely sitting this one out
    • Any snow that starts will change to ice then rain
    • Little or no accumulation
  • Northern NJ 
    • The battle zone of this storm I think is between the I-78 and I-80 corridor meaning that there can be mixing issues that cut down accumulations.
    •  15 Miles can be the difference between 4" and 10" in this spot
    • Do not discount the snow cover as it can help enhance the baroclinic zone which the low will want to travel along 
  • North of I-80 into New England looks to be in the best spot for significant snow accumulations around 8-14"

Remember there is a lot of cold air in place due to that arctic high. We can not underestimate this. Even though some areas do not get heavy snow, ice can still be an issue if the cold air holds at the surface.

Stay tuned for the updated forecast!

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