Sunday, January 4, 2015

Sunday Morning: I like what I see

Good morning weather fans. Quick post today, but I want to highlight a few things I will be touching on this week.

Firstly...the cold!

The map below shows temperature departure from average in C over next 3-8 days

That is killer cold, and it rivals last years outbreak. Here are the high and low temps for the New Jersey area, look at Wednesday night into Thursday!

All due to cold air getting injected directly from the north pole. You can see this well on the map below. 

Looking at the longer range, I am starting to like the trend in the models for an upper air pattern that could cause snowstorms.

 Looking below, an important feature is starting to surface. 

High pressure near the Hudson Bay Canada. What looks like it is a warm pattern is actually a quite good one. If the jet stream cuts under that area of high pressure big storms can form and they are "blocked" by this big high over Hudson Bay. Also, that high provides the cold air necessary. In addition, notice the ridge of high pressure projected to develop near Greenland in the western Atlantic. That is hints of our beloved negative NAO. Of course this is very long range, but a pattern like this matches the research I did when I put out my winter forecast. So lets see how this plays out. Winter is not over folks and I think everyone will realize this when they are shivering this week. 

Stay tuned. 

P.S. we will see some light snow on Tuesday as a clipper system passes thorough our area. 1-2" possible.

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