Well the answer appears to be yes. Please excuse the format and grammer of this post as I am skiing and have no computer. This is all being done on my cell phone, but I am so excited about this potential a post is very necessary.
So what is the potential here? The potential is for major storm system to develop behind a shot of arctic air tonight. This means it will be very cold so this is a all Snow threat for mostly every area from Delaware to Maine. This is a storm system that has the POTENTIAL to be historic as the region in its bullseye could be taking about feet of snow. I wish I had the capability to make a video because I am very amped up on the setup leading to this storm. We are only 36-48 hours away so a storm is def coming the question just remains who gets the bullseye NYC area or Boston?
So let's dive right into it. The image below shows the cold air in place ahead of the storm due to an arctic high in Canada. This is a KEY ingredient as it supply a boatload of cold air for all regions..
All the blue represents cold air and you can see the high pressure center North of VT.
Our storm developes due to a northern disturbance diving sharply down from Canada. The ridge of high pressure out west is key as the more amplified it is the more the storm will hug the coast. Models have trended favorable on this.
The biggest key as to if it's NYC or Boston to Me is how steep ridge gets. We need a very steep ridge like the European shows to get the bullseye into NYC area into NJ. The gfs was shallower w ridge thus was more east and North w storm mainly hitting Boston hard and more moderate snow South.
Why am I going I to this detail? Because you guys need to understand I can't make a final call until tomorrow on who's actually gets clobbered.
Here is gfs model for Monday night into Tuesday.
Can't show precip but check out euro below and the high to the north blocking this storm from leaving
Here is my first map on this situation. The red zone is potentially 2 feet of snow hence the bullseye.
I will have a quick update tomorrow morning and add some stuff to my Twitter during the day as data comes in.
When I'm home finally tomorrow night I will have a final forecast map and video around 1030. It's funny I didn't take my computer w me on this trip BC i was superstitious that there would be no storm to post on if I did. Yes I am that nuts.