Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Monday Morning: Taking a Look at Sunday into Monday

Quick post this morning on the late weekend into early next week situation. As I mentioned last night in my video the upper air pattern looks like it will want to form a storm for this period. However, there are a lot of questions that remain before any snow lovers out there get excited. 

In particular:

Few things to note when looking at the image above. All models have roughly a similar look as this. That means they all are showing a storm Sunday night into Monday. Some areas get a lot of snow with the current projections of this storm if the maps are taken verbatim (no not 3 feet). However, we do not forecast by just looking at the surface output of each model run. Instead we need to focus on the map above and determine if the proper chess pieces are in place for the ideal storm track. So lets do a quick summary of how these look and I will have more detail tonight..

  • You see the high pressure over Greenland on the image above noted by the red colors. This is called a negative NAO and is a good precursor to storms. However notice the high pressure system is on the east side of Greenland.
    • This means there is a chance that a storm that forms could cut to the west of the major cities which would mean a no snow threat.
    • Its not the end all be all however as that negative NAO does enhance the next factor which is
  • The 50/50 Low
    • I talk about this a lot because it is important. This low pressure system in southeastern Canada is key because it locks in high pressure to its west. High pressure supply's cold air to storms
    • This develops as a result of our late week clipper moving out of the area
  • Ridge out west
    • Always a key to a storm as the more amplified it is on the west the stronger the trough is downstream in the east
    • If the ridge axis is too west however it can increase the chances of the trough being too far west which could cause the next issue
  • Do the northern and southern jet streams phase too early due to ridge being too far west.
    • this is a possibility and would result in major cities seeing no snow and instead the snow being confined to interior areas.
    • Since we have that east based -NAO it doesn't help in this circumstance 
Bottom line I am gaining confidence a storm system will effect the region on Sunday night into Monday. More importantly, I need to see how these factors evolve and change over the next few days before getting an idea of who is in the cross hairs for a shot at snow.

Just because the GFS model is currently showing this for a snow printout does not mean I will say ok guys here comes more snow. Let The Weather Channel do that. 

If anything this snow printout is not accurate right now because there would be some ice in areas to the southeast on this image. The European model is showing even more snow. Let's not jump the gun yet here. I am all for making bold predictions, but it still is too early.

Let's wait another 24-36 hours.

More tonight. 

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