Friday, January 16, 2015

Friday Morning: Now We Sit and Wait to See if this Pattern Delivers

Good morning everyone.This morning I want to give an updated look on snow threats over the next 10 days. Everyone already knows by now that I really like the pattern that is developing from my previous posts so lets summarize things to watch in the upcoming period. 

Starting off with late this weekend into Monday. Interesting spread in the models here as the European is the outlier with the most westward track compared to the GFS and Canadian. I am not 100% throwing out the Euro however due to the face the British model which I deem pretty accurate is almost exactly the same with its placement of the low pressure system. In any event, I think this is what to expect.

There is a chance this can bust and the storm does not effect anyone in those regions but I can not say that with two models looking so consistent. 

Here is the example of the Euro and British model side by side with placement of the low.

We will know by tomorrow AM if this will verify. If these two models shift east then the GFS wins this battle. I'll be in Northern VT skiing so this would be money in the bank for me. 

Moving on, we need to watch Tuesday night into Wednesday for a moderate snow threat that is more favorable for all areas as a low pressure system can develop just to  the south of NJ and move just off the coast.

With a lot of cold air in place ahead of this system, there would be a good chance at snow  if things pan out.  Once again the British model looks similar to the European model above but the GFS or American model is not too impressed with this system either. Time will tell.

Finally as we head towards the end of the 10 day peroid next weekend we need to watch for a potential big ticket item. 

Below is a rough drawing of what the European ensemble mean is showing ahead of this threat..

Because of the fact I see a potential -NAO and 50/50 low signature I am mentioning this threat this far out. But in any event we need to wait and see what happens as it is too far to get too excited over at this point. If anyone is looking for a big storm this would be the potential setup for one. 

So there you go, at least we got some potential action on the table. Now we wait and see if any of this verifies starting with the late weekend snow threat for interior New England. I will have limited access to the blog but will try to update via my cell as I am skiing this weekend. Let's hope there is good news to report.

Thanks for checking in. 

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