Friday, January 9, 2015

Friday Morning: Continuing to Hone in on Next Week

So all week I have been trying to break down what potentially could be a dual threat of wintry weather next week. The first shot at winter weather is Monday where I have been talking about moisture in the southern jet stream attacking cold air over our area. My thoughts are still not changed on that system. 

To keep things simple the most recent run of the GFS is pretty much what I expect for Monday in terms of rain,snow and ice placement.

I touched on this in last nights video. I think the areas to the north where it is all snow see a nice few inches on Monday. We will continue to evaluate this threat as we enter the weekend.

Now on to part 2 which has been the more complicated prediction. There is evidence that a more significant system can effect the east coast later in the week. I have pounded the table on the fact that I wanted to wait till later in the weekend before I even attempted to take a stance on this so for now just know it is still in the cards. The model runs last night looked better than the model runs yesterday for this system.

The two images below show the shift in the GFS model from yesterday afternoon to last night.

Image above is yesterday afternoon GFS, Notice as I discussed in video how it basically sheers or stretches out all the energy on the field. This is a no storm scenerio.

However, look at the shift last night. valid the same time.. 

Notice how the energy or orange colors are more bundled near the east coast and not sheered out. That shows that the model has shifted to suggesting the storm is back on the table in its eyes due to potential phasing.  This is in line with what the European has been consistently trying to say.

We will continue to evaluate this over the weekend and like I said I will hone in on if I think we have a significant winter storm threat on the table for later next week. 

More later. 

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