Monday, January 26, 2015

Final Verdict. It Will Snow Tonight, But Western Counties Bust

My forecast snow amounts are clearly too high for all areas west in NJ and maybe NYC. Up north and east it might do ok. It will snow tonight in NJ and we might actually get a surprise and get some decent accumulation but no where near the amounts I have. This storm is very large so when it stalls out we will get some of its moisture. I'm watching all forecasters wiggle out of their predictions by slowly tweaking the amounts down. I am not going to do that and just say it how it is. The comment section is open for anyone who wants to blow off steam and use a few choice words about my forecast.

Many models hinted at this but the European model and its ensembles did not and stayed remarkably consistent. This time they look to be wrong. Of course anything is possible but I am pulling the plug on significant accumulations on all areas basically to the west of I-287. 

I will be watching this evolve and there will be more updates to come.

10 comments:

  1. Sorry Will, I know you're probably more disappointed than anyone. I won't pile on. Thanks for keeping us updated.

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  2. Always appreciate it Will. Still first big snow storm of the year.

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  3. Thanks guys hopefully I get the next one. Even tho we will not have 2 ft on the ground, at least the cold and snow is finally arriving. We got a lot of winter to go.

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  4. Hi Will, I really enjoy your blog and truly appreciate your honesty. Weather forecasting is just that: forecasting! It's not an
    exact science and Mother Nature does her own thing no matter what any computer says! So don't be so hard on yourself.
    You do us all a great service. Better we should be prepared than caught unawares. Besides, as a retiree, I'm not a big fan of
    snow. I have an old cabin and have to climb up on the roof to clear heavy snowfalls (to prevent leaks or possible cave in.)
    so while you eagerly await huge snowfalls, I rather dread it. For me it doesn't mean skiing - it means hard heavy work.

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  5. Unlike the guys on TV you actually have integrity and call it like it is, even if it means going against what you said earlier. The network "meteorologists" have to keep upholding the doomsday scenarios to retain the viewership, and ultimately ad revenue. Screw that. I just discovered your blog and appreciate what you're doing for the community. Rest assured you've got some repeat visitors coming your way.

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    1. But even Willy wants to be the center of attention when he can. I would have more respect for him if he was honest up front...he should have said...remember folks...50 or a hundred miles either way...in terms of the low pressure, etc. makes a huge difference...so instead of Morris County getting 20+- inches it might only get 4... But even Willy needs his "look at me...look at me..."

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  6. you do a great job at explaining weather details for someone like me,all you can do is forecast what looks likely to happen then mother nature has the last word

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  7. That's it - I'm suing. I'm suing everybody. I'm suing you, I'm suing me. Everybody. Everybody I tell you....

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  8. Pretty inexcusable that forecasters could be so arrogantly confident about such huge snow totals within 24 hours of a storm and be so completely wrong. Definitely hurts credibility.

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  9. Thanks for all the comments and kind words guys, appreciate it. It was a learning experience for everyone including the pros. I will come back strong next time.

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