Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Tuesday Morning: The Storm is Underway,Who will Get Lucky Tomorrow?

Good morning, as the sun rises today our storm is starting to intensify. Rain is now spreading through most areas with some snow to the north.
















By 1pm today you can see the storm reaching ski country with snow breaking out in the mountain regions. Looking below you can see how this high resolution model is picking up on the snow at the high elevations and rain at the lower elevations up north. It is basically outlining the Catskill, Adirondack, and Green Mountains in blue which is snow. This makes sense to me.



















By the time we get to 7pm below our low pressure center starts to stall around Long Island and colder air is starting to wrap into the storm..



















Here is where the forecast still remains uncertain as we transition to back-end snows from the cutoff low. This is what a cutoff low looks like..

















Below are some model projections of the snow area from that developing band by the time we get to tomorrow morning..From left to right is the GFS,NAM and Canadian models around 1pm tomorrrow



In general the European which I am not showing is closest the the GFS and NAM with back-end snows hitting central and eastern PA, Northwestern NJ and parts of upstate NY. The Canadian is more focused on upstate NY. The differences are due to where the model projects the cutoff low will be at this time. Cutoff lows are hard to predict so naturally there is some spread in options. In any case, someone is getting lucky tomorrow and can have a surprise amount of snow while other areas get nothing.

Snowfall projections from the GFS are below. You can see how it shows the accumulations from that back end band in PA bleeding into NJ.





The European is not far off from these totals. I will be keeping an eye on how this storm evolves and the updated projections for tomorrows snow as the day progresses. Overall, I like the forecast I have from yesterday. Again ELEVATION IS A BIG ROLE FOR THIS STORM. So the higher in elevation you are and the further you are into the heart of New England, the more snow you are going to get in the ranges below. Ski country I think we are looking at 14-20 inches.



I will update on twitter today and have an updated blog post around 10pm. Unfortunately for many of us, enjoy the heavy rain and wind today!

3 comments:

  1. Just an update. Been freezing rain, and plain rain for most of the day. A heavy wet sloppy snow is starting in to mix in. It's having a hard time though.

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  2. Have gotten no accumulating snow in central new york. Still a mix of rain and snow right now. Bummer

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    1. Yeah elevation was key today. Unless you were in ski country you didn't get much. Tomorrow you got a shot. Cold air is in place and the models project the back end snow band to hit central NY state into early thursday. Keep me updated on how you make out.

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