Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Special Wednesday Night Video Discussion: Big Storm on the Boards

The video below breaks down the factors influencing the potential big storm next week. Even though we will not have cold air in place to start, I am still very impressed by the synoptic setup driving this storm. Here are a few pointers:

  • Southern jet stream disturbance brings rain to the area this weekend.
  • As this is going on, a split flow in the jet stream develops behind it
  • Because of this split, the two jet streams have the potential to combine along the east coast early next week due to a ridge of high pressure out west
    • This means a big coastal storm can develop
  • A large area of high pressure to the north  in eastern Canada slows this storm down causing it to basically stall off the coast extending the duration of this event
    • This should also help feed in cold air depending on its strength
  • Who gets rain and who gets snow all depends on how much cold air the storm can pull in and also how deep the northern jet disturbance digs into the storm system
Way to early to discuss who gets rain and who gets snow. For now just know we have a very interesting scenario for next week to follow closely. The models are going to start going nuts due to the fact that  "cutoff" lows and split flows in the jet stream cause all sorts of  modeling problems.

More breakdown in the video below:

P.S. Of course the GFS model is further offshore with the storm. Very typical behavior. 

More tomorrow morning!

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