Friday, December 5, 2014

Friday Morning: Big Storm Looking Likely

Good morning followers. Another night has passed and with another night means more model runs! Have they finally got a grapple on this storm threat? Well lets take a look.

Today I will show you three models. The GFS (American), the European, and the UKMET (British). The European and UKMET are superior models in my opinion. Before I show these model runs, I want to say I think this storm has major potential for interior areas of New England. All signs are pointing to a storm that stalls off the mid-Atlantic coast then gets pulled back in towards the coast by an upper level low approaching from the northwest. What does this mean? It means the storm will be very long in duration potentially resulting in someone getting a significant amount of snow. Who and where is still too early to say. Just know that my prediction is the big storm is coming at this time. 

To give you an idea I drew out the storm track from last nights European. Notice the loop de loop the storm takes..

This has happened before with storm tracks, but you really do not see it often. The reason the storm is looping like that is because of a big high pressure area to the north to slow the initial storm down, along with the approaching disturbance from the northwest. The approaching disturbances pulls the storm back which causes the loop. 

So here we go. The next two images are the UKMET model on the left and European on the right for the middle of next week.. The first panel is on Tuesday the second on Wednesday.

Looking above to the first two images, notice a few things. For one, the UKMET on the left is extremely similar to the European on the right in terms of the placement of the low. Secondly, as we move down to the second pair of images notice 24 hours later they still look very similar. Bottom line, both models support a storm that stalls out along the coast due to the factors I described  above.

Remember, from the beginning I said its all about the steepness of the ridge out west and how much that northern disturbance dives down into the initial coastal storm. The trend in both these models over the last few days has been to make that northern disturbance deeper resulting in a more aggressive scenario for the storm. If this trend continues, it could mean the snow line would get pulled closer to the coast. Regardless, I think best case scenario for snow lovers is inland areas MAYBE up to I-95.

Now lets take a look at the piece of crap GFS that is making its usual error pattern of flattening out the flow and shoving everything out to sea..

This model has major flaws and it is a real problem. Now maybe this time it will be right and make me look like the idiot but I cannot support its output when I see this mistake made the majority of the time with every winter storm. We shall see if this is its big breakout moment.

In terms of snowfall totals I am not going to be a hero and try to give who gets what at this time. I think by this weekend I can give a general idea and put out a map if this trend continues to evolve considering that is the purpose of this blog. In general though, the European model is projecting over a foot of snow from this storm for inland areas mainly VT, NH, and interior NY. As I said if the trend continues some areas closer to the coast can get into the fun zone as well. That remains to be seen. The models should have a better handle on this when the data sampling improves of the two disturbances which will be by tomorrow. 

Got a busy day ahead with client meetings but expect a update early this eve with today's model runs. This is quite the interesting storm set-up!

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