The first image is the precipitation intensity for 7pm wed (blue is very intense). The second picture is the temperature at 5000 ft in the atmosphere (anything blue is below freezing). This is the level that dictates the rain snow line for our area. As you can see at the height of the storm the rain snow line is just to the northwest of I-95. However, this does not take into account elevation, any area above 1000 ft that is close to the blue region will most likely be all snow. Areas in northern jersey in the green will start as rain and change to snow at the end possibly picking up a few inches. As the days go on I expect the rain snow line on these models to stay close to where the European shows and if anything become a little colder for our northwest counties. If this was to remain all snow for our northwest counties we would be easily looking at 12+ inches of snow with 2-4 inches in central jersey, and 1-3 near the coast. The difference between over a foot of snow and 2 inches is literally going to be the difference of 50 miles from southeast to northwest. With the warm Atlantic ocean and the blocking high pressure to the north I think the modeling has a warm bias right now and well continue to fall in line with my thoughts. So for those of you who like snow who live more towards NYC do not throw in the towel yet.
For my friends down in Baltimore you better hope this trends even more colder than I think or your looking at maybe a dusting. This will be a northeast event. Its safe to say If anyone wants to go skiing next week the Catskill mountains of NY will be blanketed. That's all for now, keep checking in daily and spread the word about this site.