Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Tuesday 11:30 pm: Storm Middle Of Next Week Looks Powerful

Following up on my post last night, Storm # 2 I mentioned looks to be a major event for our region middle of next week (Storm # 1 will be rain on Monday). Here is the latest GFS model that just came out 10 min ago..

Yes that does say 969mb for the low pressure center. A winter storm with that pressure level is very strong (Super Storm of 93 had pressure of 960). Now we are still a week away so there are a lot of details to iron out with this system, including where it will form along the coast and how intense the low pressure level will end up. I will say this, I can confidently say a storm will form. I conclude this based on the large scale pattern with blocking to the north and also the trend of this season so far of storms favoring our area for snow. What will happen is a low pressure center is going to move through the south central portion of the country and then transfer its energy to the coast around NC and reform into a storm you are seeing in the graphic above. With a strong area of cold high pressure to the north the storm cannot cut into the interior north east thus ruling out a massive rain storm. Instead, how far off the coast the storm forms will depend on who gets rain or snow for regions near the ocean. Now to counteract my forecast bias for snow, what would cause this storm not to form? Basically the only way I can see this storm not forming is if the two pieces of energy do not phase together and one shoots ahead of the other one which would flatten this system and result in storm development out to sea. The operational European model did show a hint of that this afternoon, but its ensembles did not confirm it (ensembles are a alternative run of a particular model that tweak a few assumptions and determine some alternative forecast outcomes). The next run of the European model comes out in a few hours so I will post it in my morning update. In any regard as I mentioned I am very bullish on this storm and believe it can effect our area with very heavy snow north and west of I-95. That's a very bold statement to make 8 days out and normally I would stay reserved for another day or two, but I cannot ignore the large scale weather pattern (see last post). It has cold and storms written all over it. It usually snows where it wants to snow and if November was any indication it wants to snow in our area. Let the trend be your friend. I also mentioned last night the party is not over after next week, we still will have the threat at more storm development around Christmas (see last post). 

I will update this blog daily as this situation unfolds. Lets see if I am on to something. 

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