Thursday, December 20, 2012

Thursday Night: Chances Increasing Next Week for Snow

Good evening. I like what I saw today from the models. After this rainstorm passes our area (blizzard on western side in Wisconsin) tonight and tomorrow its show time. We will now have one component in the mix that has been absent ahead of all these miserable rain storms we have had last two weeks...COLD AIR. Since cold air will be in place next week, any storm that forms will likely form closer to the coast where there is a cold  area over warm water (read last nights post for more info).  This will avoid the problem we have been having of inland running storms. 

So lets start with Xmas eve and day. Believe it or not we have a shot at light snow entering Xmas morning that would be a great surprise for many of us. Im not talking about heavy accumulations, but enough to coat the ground. After this small wave passes our area all eyes are on the 27th.  Here is the GFS and EURO models output from pro site.

As you can see both models have the storm forming close to the coast unlike the storm today. GFS has storm more out to sea while the euro is closer to coast. Now I have no idea what the exact track will be yet, but I can tell you in terms of probability this is the best chance we have had all season for accumulating snow. Yes if the low is too close to the coast it will rain in NJ just as if it is too far off the coast it will be light snow. However, this would be a very powerful storm if it forms as models are showing above. I am going to have to track the trend next few days, and I will keep posting on how are chances are for snow.

I said last night and i'll keep saying that this is a very active pattern. If for some reason we miss out on the 27th situation, my storm on the 3rd of Jan is still on the maps. Bottom line if we dont see some snow from this pattern it is just not meant to be for NJ this winter. Why is this an active pattern? Unlike last year Canada is loaded up with high pressure which will allow frequent shots of cold weather and storms as opposed to last winter where there was all low pressure over Canada causing the opposite. 

In conclusion:

1. Although delayed from my initial calculations (15th-25th) winter is coming
2. We can see light snow Xmas eve
3. All eyes are on the 27th for a potential coastal snowstorm
4. Evidence of a storm threat on Jan 3rd
4. This will be not like last winter

Keep checking in. 

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