Sunday, December 2, 2012

Sunday 10pm: Pattern for Mid December Now Solidifying- Cold and Snow Very Possible

I wanted to wait a few days since my last detailed post to see if the trend kept materializing and it has. The middle of this month starting around December 11th lasting through Christmas will get very cold across the entire US. In addition all the factors are in place for things to get very active as well in terms of the potential for a storm or two. So lets take a look at what those factors look like on December 12th..

source:weatherbell.com

Notice all the red across Greenland (Negative NAO) the north pole (negative AO) and in the Gulf of Alaska region (negative EPO). All three of those triggers in there negative phase result in a very cold pattern for the US as seen above with the green and blue region spreading across the entire US. When it comes to cold stormy patterns in the US especially the east coast, it doesn't get much better as what this model (European) is showing. Now the question becomes will a storm develop within this time frame. Right now the european model has a storm out in its long range projection as seen below..

source:accuweather.com

Now going out this far on models anything can change and in most cases they can just give an idea of what COULD happen. Not every model is as aggressive with cranking a storm like the European but historically the European is the most accurate weather model out there. 

So what is my take given this robust output from the European and also the GFS (didn't show graphic but looks similar to European)?. Even tho not every model out there is converging on this cold stormy solution, I am predicting that what is show above will happen. I cannot at this point say at what date a storm will form- it could be around the 12th like the european model shows or it could occur later in the month, but in any regard I would be surprised not to see  a winter system form during this time frame- giving us a white Christmas. I see too much evidence supporting this prediction and not as much to the contrary. 

In summary, while the next few days will be warm, a winter pattern will return starting around December 11th and last through the end of the month. All the players are on the field from a meteorological standpoint, and whether we see snow fall on December 12th as shown above or sometime later in the period, I believe snow will fall and be on the ground for Christmas. Keep checking in, I will be posting updates.

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