Friday, December 7, 2012

More Detail on Active Pattern We Will See

As I mentioned last night everything is coming together perfectly for an cold and stormy pattern over the next few weeks in the eastern US. Starting late next week, we will see shot after shot of storms rolling through the middle section of the country undercutting the blocking high pressure that is present to the north. Let me show what this set up looks like on a map.

As you can see the red region over north eastern Canada forces storms to not cut up into the lakes and mid section of the country. Instead they undercut the block and tend to form more towards the mid-Atlantic coast line. On the maps, starting late next week a few storms are starting to surface. The first possible one being late next week.

Although it is not showing this turning up coast yet, I would not be surprised if it did based on the progression of this pattern. In fact, there are a lot of similarities to the pattern we saw in winter of 2010 which if you remember was extremely active for the mid Atlantic in particular DC and Baltimore. Both the AO and NAO are going to crash, which creates the red blocking regions you saw on the first graphic letting cold stormy weather form. This pattern will start middle of next week and I can see it going into January. If we do not have snow on the ground for Christmas I would be very surprised. I will start to post on each individual storm threat as they materialize and I make a determination on what the chances are of them effecting our region. But in any regard after the rain we will see early next week things are really going to get fun if you like cold and snow. Here are temp departures from normal from the 17-22

If you compare all of this to the setup we had this time last winter (which we all know was mild with no storms) it is the complete opposite. Keep checking in over the next few days, I will be updating this with the potential upcoming threats of snow.

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