It develops a healthy storm over our area early Tuesday morning, but under this model setup it is a rain changing to snow at the end event. This puts heavy snow into PA, NY state, and VT but leaves our northwest counties with a few inches at the end. Given the shifts in the models all converging on this solution I might have to update my original forecast made a few days ago and shift the snow line further west. I still want to wait till this weekend before I make any changes. Now if this storm middle of next week does not give our area the snow I have been discussing, we have another shot at a larger storm a few days later on Sat.
This threat is too far off to comment in detail on but here is the point: It was clear two weeks ago that the pattern was going to get active. I originally mentioned the 15-25 of Dec as being the active period We have a shot at a storm that still can produce snow (storm #1) on the 18th and now another shot on the 22nd. So the setup is there we just need one of these systems to form in the right spot to yield our area some snow. Do not give up on the first storm yet; a lot can still change and if for some reason it ends up more rain than originally thought another shot at snow is right behind it. I will update throughout the weekend.