Friday, December 14, 2012

Friday AM: Shot at Two Storms Next Week

Looks like the models are starting to finally converge on a common solution and that is two storms next week. The first one will be middle of the week (one we been discussing) and second one will be on the weekend. So starting with storm # 1, what should we expect? This is a tough one I originally had areas northwest of I-95 at higher elevations (over 1000 ft) seeing a shot at decent snow. Looks like that option is still on the table but its going to come down to the wire. If for some reason the snow line sets up further west with storm 1 it is not a end all be all as storm # 2 could pick up the slack a few days later. Now we are very far away from storm #2 so I am not going to go into much detail now. However if by the end of the next 10 days we do not see snow on the ground in some shape or form, I will be very surprised. We are in a pattern that should produce snow before it is all said and done. Some details of how the snow is going to fall will be unclear at times, but the setup is there. So your probably thinking what are the details with storm # 1 since I have been talking about it over the last few days. Lets look  at the European model ..

It develops a healthy storm over our area early Tuesday morning, but under this model setup it is a rain changing to snow at the end event. This puts heavy snow into PA, NY state, and VT but leaves our northwest counties with a few inches at the end. Given the shifts in the models all converging on this solution I might have to update my original forecast made a few days ago and shift the snow line further west. I still want to wait till this weekend before I make any changes. Now if this storm middle of next week does not give our area the snow I have been discussing, we have another shot at a larger storm a few days later on Sat. 

This threat is too far off to comment in detail on but here is the point: It was clear two weeks ago that the pattern was going to get active. I originally mentioned the 15-25 of Dec as being the active period  We have a shot at a storm that still can produce snow (storm #1) on the 18th and now another shot on the 22nd. So the setup is there we just need one of these systems to form in the right spot to yield our area some snow. Do not give up on the first storm yet; a lot can still change and if for some reason it ends up more rain than originally thought another shot at snow is right behind it. I will update throughout the weekend.

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