Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Forecast Still On Track For Cold and Stormy Mid Dec- Storm Next Week

Good Morning, everything I discussed on Sunday night is still on track. We will notice a big cool down middle of the month lasting into Christmas. A storm is going to effect the eastern third of the country early next week and right now it looks to me mostly rain for our area. I was playing with the idea of making a bold prediction yesterday that the storm would form more along the east coast and have a colder snowier solution but I have backed off for now. If I am going to change my forecast from rain to snow for early next week it will be by tomorrow morning. Here is what the GFS model has for early next week.

source:accuweather.com

Notice the huge shot of cold into the central US (seen represented by blue lines) that will eventually come our way but not until after this rain storm clears the area. For this to end up being snow for the east coast, the  ridge in the west has to progress more eastward pushing the trough further to the east as well. This is still not off the table, but I usually look for trending in the modeling and there is no clear trend to shift this eastward. Yesterday it looked like it was going that way, but it backed off last night. I am still holding to my perdition that we will have a white Christmas and at least one snowstorm before month end. As I mentioned in my last post, this storm early next week was always on the table, but it might not be till after next week that we see snow. Keep checking in daily and I will keep posting updates.

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