Saturday Night Video Update on Storm

I break down tomorrow's storm in the video below. I am expecting a good thumping of snow for certain areas. I explain the reason why in the video. If this storm outperforms it will be because it is colder not warmer than modeled in my opinion, so anyone from central NJ on up be on the lookout! Enjoy!

Next update tomorrow morning right before the storm starts. My snow map from this morning is in previous post.  Also we have a lot of action in store for us this week. If you followed my posts from last week you know what I am talking about.  I will go into more detail tomorrow. 

Snowfall Forecast for Tomorrow

Good morning everyone. I have broken down and analyzed the data and below is my final snowfall prediction for tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. Expect snow to breakout earlier tomorrow afternoon in most areas and continue into early morning Monday. This storm is the result of a warm moist air from the southwest running into cold air in place over our area. In addition, this storm will be enhanced by another upper level disturbance that is approaching from Canada. Due to this dynamic, I am expecting heavy snow to breakout at times in the purple region which is why the totals are higher there. Also, I favor a colder solution for those areas which is why I brought the 4-8 into North NJ. Just south of the 4-8 expect snow changing to sleet as we get to Sunday night which will hold down accumulations. South of the blue band I expect snow to change to rain. 

When all is said and done, this should be a nice moderate snowstorm for southern New England and parts of NJ. I will definitely have a video breakdown of the storm tonight around 6 pm. Be sure to tune in. 

By City/Town:

NYC 2-4" Right on boarder of heavy snow so can go either way

Boston 4-8"

Philadelphia: 1-3"

Balt/Washington: Trace

Morristown NJ: 4-8"

Whitehouse Station NJ Area: 4"

Edison NJ: 2-4"

Map Out around 1030am!

Friday Morning Comment

I put a lot of detail into yesterday's post so I will just make a few small points today. 

I think northern zones have a good shot at some accumulating snow on Sunday night. Nothing major, but I think the arctic boundary is far enough south where all of northern NJ into New England see's snow. 

As for the mid-week system all model guidance points to a rain storm for many areas with snow to rain further to the north. I am not going to comment any more on this until a few more days pass by. Sure a rain storm is possible, but with so much energy on the field and a split flow jet pattern it is very hard for the models to handle. We have learned more than once this year that jumping the gun too early in either direction is not going to result in a good forecast. I explained yesterday what would need to happen to hold the cold air in place given we have a -PNA trough in the west which normally produces a warm scenario for the east. 

Winter days are really counting down now and the good news for any snow haters is after March 15th it is pretty difficult to get a storm. We are still a few weeks away from that point so do not let your guard down. It is going to be interesting to see if this colder than normal weather pattern holds based on the pattern in the Pacific. Time will tell, but I am not on the "early spring" bandwagon". As long as we have a ridge over AK it drills down colder than normal air into the country. The warm water off the pacific coast aids in keeping that ridge in place. This is a classic positive PDO pattern. I talked about the PDO in my winter forecast. Oh by the way, I will do a review of that forecast when the season is over for anyone who is interested. 

That's all for now. 

Thursday Morning Weather Discussion: Pattern Staying Active!

Doesn't guarantee a big snowstorm but it does gives us the chance to track a few storm systems over the next few weeks. We have a very active jet stream regime and that means we need to monitor how all the puzzle pieces will come together to forms storms. 

To start off, we have a storm system now that is going to pass to our south. It was pretty amazing how far north this thing trended since a few days back but it will not effect most of the area, just extreme south jersey will see come accumulating snow..

In the wake of this storm a big arctic high reestablishes itself over our area bringing more frigid temps as we head into the weekend. The image below shows the air temps departure from normal by Saturday morning. 

Earlier in the week I talked about how we could see a brief warm up by the time we get to late weekend/early next week but that I was not sold on a full blown March warm up. The reason is that the pacific is driving this pattern meaning that the warm water off the cost is supporting a semi permanent ridge of high pressure that is drilling down arctic air. Well, it appears that will be the same old story for March and this brief warm up will prob not occur either early next week. In fact we need to now monitor two weather systems that will effect the regions Sunday night and again for the middle of next week. Lets take a look..

As we approach Sunday night a shortwave or kink in the jet stream approaches our area..

You can see the kink entering the great lakes region above. This kink is a disturbance that will bring unsettled weather to our area. The origin of this disturbance is arctic in nature so warm air is not the issue if we just look at it alone. However, if this where to really dig in to the flow earlier then we could see southwest winds ahead of it which could warm the upper layers of the atmosphere causing mixed precipitation. I do not support that scenario at this time based on seasonal trends. I think if this thing digs more it will be later and not earlier which would preserve the cold air in place ahead of it. Bottom line, I am giving us a chance at light to moderate snow Sunday night. Here is the GFS' models projection..

Things then get very interesting as this storm passes as the jet stream really fires up. Check out all the energy on the field by the time we get to Monday night..

Yes all this energy is hanging back near the west but that storm that moves through on Sunday night can effect how this energy effects our region by the time we get to Wed and Thursday. Here is the reason why...

Naturally when we have energy hanging back near the pacific with a lack of a western ridge it could result in a surge of warmth near the east as the jet stream rises over that region. The end result is a storm that effects the central part of the country. 

However, if we have a strong area of high pressure in place to the north the storm cant just simply cut into the central US and instead slides along the boundary and redevelops along the east. 

As of  now the model is showing my point..

You can see that storm system developing in the central US with high pressure over PA. If that high pressure is allowed to slide out of region then the storm is warm for us and we get snow to ice to rain. The model is currently showing that..

But lets go back to that disturbance from Sunday night. You can see the remains of it off of eastern Canada on Tuesday.

The key here is this: If that storm really blows up over eastern Canada more than expected then it helps to lock in that high pressure area I showed two images back over PA. If that was to occur this storm Wed would be colder and snowier. This is something that we will have to monitor for sure.

As if that wasn't enough, we will have a building western ridge later next week. That means we have to be on the lookout again for unsettled weather that could naturally form further east over our region.

The bottom line is this: 

• Very active weather over next 10 days
• Each wave of weather will effect the next wave due to it's influence on the pressure pattern
• This doesn't mean we get a lot of snow but it gives us a shot at more winter weather
• Cold air looks like its here to stay although it will moderate with the season in March

Thanks for checking in. 

Post coming this eve

Not an awful lot to add, that storm is flirting w the southern zones but I do not think it turns up the coast.

Tuesday Morning Update

Too bad we will miss the mid-week storm, it def had some potential. Expect cold conditions to continue through the week and a warmer conditions arriving by the time we get to later in the weekend. I think this small warm up ends up becoming a head fake and the colder than normal conditions could prevail at least through the second week of March before spring really shows its face. In any event, we are very close to the end of winter here and as the weeks go by our chances for snowstorms will diminish rapidly. Realistically we have about 2.5 weeks left of action before it becomes very difficult to get a storm. Will this winter go out with a bang? We will have to wait and see.

I do not have much more to add today. I will keep monitoring this pattern and hone in on if I think there is anything worth talking about. This morning was another record cold morning and many locations went sub zero. In terms of temperatures the last month has really be incredible and historic.