Storm Update 3pm. Will provide more details and hone in on timing and track

Major Storm Potential Sat Afternoon through Sunday: My initial estimate

 Good evening. The talk of the town is the major winter storm potential this weekend. Below is my initial estimate of how I think this storm evolves, and who is impacted. Keep in mind this can change drastically but it wouldn't be a forecast if I just shared different model runs every day. There still is a chance this can miss but that window is narrowing. The timing looks to be Saturday afternoon through Sunday as of now. 

Stay tuned, I will provide a lot more detail as the days go on including videos. 

Major Storm Potential Next Weekend. Stay tuned for Commentary

Final Forecast for Tomorrow's Storm

 ere is my final forecast below. Snow works in way in by mid morning for most spots and lingers throughout the day. Up in Eastern New England it goes into the night. For NJ initially i don't see high impacts outside the NW areas of the state due to marginal temps. However by the afternoon expect a few inches possible to pile up as cold air rushes in.

Snow Moving in. More Snow Tomorrow, Forecast Below

 Good morning. Snow is now moving in from the west. Expect 1-3" in many areas by this afternoon.

We then turn our attention to tomorrow. I will have a video out tonight.

Here is my forecast:

I have been anticipating western trends in models with this. We are starting to now see them..

On my X handle @weatherwilly I go into some of the reasons why.

Regardless, expect up to a moderate snowstorm tomorrow for areas to the east. The local weather outlets will start picking up on this by the afternoon.

Very cold air follows next week.

Forecast for Light Snow Tomorrow. Part Two Sunday (Stay Tuned)

 

Friday Update: Snow Possible this Weekend

Tracking a Potential Winter Storm: What to Watch This Weekend

After a relatively quiet stretch, the weather patterns are shifting, and all eyes are on a developing system that could bring a meaningful layer of white to our region this Sunday.

When forecasting winter storms, we look closely at the jet stream—the high-altitude "river of air" that guides storm systems. For a few days, weather models were uncertain about how the atmosphere would react to a departing system from earlier in the week.

The latest data has cleared up that picture. We are seeing a "kink" in the jet stream that is allowing a favorable jet streak to develop right over our region. This change is significant because it pulls the surface low-pressure system closer to the coast—a classic setup for accumulating snow in the Northeast.

This won't be a one-day event; rather, it looks like a two-part arrival:

• The Introduction (Saturday): As a cold front moves in, expect a wave of light snow. While this isn't the "main event," it will mark the beginning of a colder, more wintry pattern.

• The Main Event (Sunday): Confidence is increasing for moderate accumulating snowfall on Sunday. The current data shows the heaviest impact in the regions highlighted in the maps below, though we are watching for the storm to track even further west, which could bring higher totals further inland.

While "exact amounts" are always the hardest part of a forecast to pin down until we are within 24 hours, the trends are very encouraging for those hoping for a snowy Sunday. The atmospheric ingredients are finally aligning in a way that favors a more impactful event rather than a simple "near miss."

Stay tuned. No impact maps from me until tomorrow. If trends hold I will have more detail