12 PM Storm Update: This Storm is the Real Deal

 

830am Observation Update: Storm is Cranking

 

7pm Update: Play by Play for Tomorrow

 

Good evening. The storm is on our doorstep and the forecast remains on track. In the video below I break down exactly what to expect tomorrow for this powerful winter storm. No changes to last nights final forecast which I also included below. Things get going just after daybreak and will deteriorate fast by late morning/early afternoon. The snow is going to come in hard and fast by this time. Ice mixes in to the south in Delmarva by mid morning turning into a sleet storm. Storm is over by Mon morning.   Enjoy the video, see you in the morning. 

Stay tuned for next update around 7pm

 As of now everything is on track. No changes to my thoughts last night check out the video if you haven't seen it. 

Timing looks to be on track as well. Expect this storm to really move in around daybreak tomorrow. 

10 PM Storm Update: Final Forecast and Play by Play

 Good evening. My updated l forecast is below.. The goal is to not have to change this unless my read on the storm is wrong. This is going to be a major storm. Largest one we've had in 5 years. Here is what you need to know:

We have the coldest air of the season moving in right now. Temperatures are going to drop to almost 0 tonight. It's this Arctic air mass that is really going to make this storm brutal.

Snow should start to move into the area just around daybreak on Sunday with temperatures in the single digits to low teens!

Things will really get cranking late morning through the afternoon. Expect heavy snowfall with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. Some sleet can mix in at times especially later in the afternoon. Temperatures never leave the teens all day, so everything that falls out of the sky will be accumulating.

There could be a small break in the storm later on Sunday afternoon into early evening. If this happens the storm is not over yet and things will pick back up later on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The storm should be over by daybreak Monday.

Arctic air that stays over the area for the entire week.

It's going to be a mess out there prepare for big impacts. Basically the entire eastern third of the country is under a Winter Storm Warning. Stay tuned for storm tracking updates.

Stay Tuned, Working on Update...Will be at 10pm

 I am issuing the final forecast to keep everyone ahead of the storm before weekend is underway. 

8pm Forecast Update

 

*Note: this is a high impact storm. Even areas that show lower totals on my map will have a lot of ice to deal with. Not be fooled by the lower amounts in the southern areas. 

Good evening. Major winter storm is on track for Sunday into Monday. Below is my latest forecast. I plan to update this one more time tomorrow night into a final forecast. The goal is not to have to change this map too much. 

Expect snow to move into the region just after daybreak Sunday. By late morning into early afternoon things start to really pick up. Some sleet mixes in CNJ South by the afternoon Sunday. Storm is not over until Monday morning. 

Next Update 7pm Tonight....Forecast on Track

 moved to 8pm. Stay tuned

Wed Night Video Discussion: Breaking Down the Storm

 

Storm Update: My Initial Forecast

 Good afternoon. Below is my initial estimate of storm impacts this weekend. Timing is very early Sunday into early Monday morning...

Expect an initial thump of snow for all areas then a transition to some sleet to the south. The exact timing and location of this is still TBD, so I am making an estimate in my map above on how I think this ends up playing out. I will adjust this daily if its necessary (hopefully not).

The model projection below is how i think this play out...

Notice the initial snow (blue), then a transition to some ice (orange and pink). The placement on this model makes sense to me.

The cold out out ahead is very strong, so the models that are warmer and further north I think are wrong. Time will tell if I am am correct.

Stay tuned. More to come including video breakdowns. 

Storm Update 3pm. Will provide more details and hone in on timing and track

Major Storm Potential Sat Afternoon through Sunday: My initial estimate

 Good evening. The talk of the town is the major winter storm potential this weekend. Below is my initial estimate of how I think this storm evolves, and who is impacted. Keep in mind this can change drastically but it wouldn't be a forecast if I just shared different model runs every day. There still is a chance this can miss but that window is narrowing. The timing looks to be Saturday afternoon through Sunday as of now. 

Stay tuned, I will provide a lot more detail as the days go on including videos. 

Major Storm Potential Next Weekend. Stay tuned for Commentary

Final Forecast for Tomorrow's Storm

 ere is my final forecast below. Snow works in way in by mid morning for most spots and lingers throughout the day. Up in Eastern New England it goes into the night. For NJ initially i don't see high impacts outside the NW areas of the state due to marginal temps. However by the afternoon expect a few inches possible to pile up as cold air rushes in.

Snow Moving in. More Snow Tomorrow, Forecast Below

 Good morning. Snow is now moving in from the west. Expect 1-3" in many areas by this afternoon.

We then turn our attention to tomorrow. I will have a video out tonight.

Here is my forecast:

I have been anticipating western trends in models with this. We are starting to now see them..

On my X handle @weatherwilly I go into some of the reasons why.

Regardless, expect up to a moderate snowstorm tomorrow for areas to the east. The local weather outlets will start picking up on this by the afternoon.

Very cold air follows next week.

Forecast for Light Snow Tomorrow. Part Two Sunday (Stay Tuned)

 

Friday Update: Snow Possible this Weekend

Tracking a Potential Winter Storm: What to Watch This Weekend

After a relatively quiet stretch, the weather patterns are shifting, and all eyes are on a developing system that could bring a meaningful layer of white to our region this Sunday.

When forecasting winter storms, we look closely at the jet stream—the high-altitude "river of air" that guides storm systems. For a few days, weather models were uncertain about how the atmosphere would react to a departing system from earlier in the week.

The latest data has cleared up that picture. We are seeing a "kink" in the jet stream that is allowing a favorable jet streak to develop right over our region. This change is significant because it pulls the surface low-pressure system closer to the coast—a classic setup for accumulating snow in the Northeast.

This won't be a one-day event; rather, it looks like a two-part arrival:

• The Introduction (Saturday): As a cold front moves in, expect a wave of light snow. While this isn't the "main event," it will mark the beginning of a colder, more wintry pattern.

• The Main Event (Sunday): Confidence is increasing for moderate accumulating snowfall on Sunday. The current data shows the heaviest impact in the regions highlighted in the maps below, though we are watching for the storm to track even further west, which could bring higher totals further inland.

While "exact amounts" are always the hardest part of a forecast to pin down until we are within 24 hours, the trends are very encouraging for those hoping for a snowy Sunday. The atmospheric ingredients are finally aligning in a way that favors a more impactful event rather than a simple "near miss."

Stay tuned. No impact maps from me until tomorrow. If trends hold I will have more detail