The 2026 Winter Outlook

Welcome back everyone. Looking forward to another exciting winter season and sharing my thoughts with you all. Below is my Winter Outlook, hope you enjoy!

Monday Update: No Big Storm This Week

 Good morning. The ideas I laid out in my video last night will not come to fruition. Trends are going opposite of what I expected. The result is no big storm this week. At best we will see light snow. The image below shows jet stream trends. Notice near east coast how it flattens out. That prevents a large storm from amplifying. 

Cold and dry, the theme of winter will continue. 

Sunday Night Update: My Thoughts on This Week's Storm Threat

 All models are out to sea with Thursday's storm threat. However, in video below I breakdown why the models may be wrong and we could see a trend back to the west. Bottom line, I am not counting out the chance for a winter storm on Thursday. Stay tuned!

Friday Update: Initial burst of Accumulating Snow Tomorrow Afternoon

 Good afternoon. We have a burst of snow that will move into the region tomorrow afternoon into evening before changing to rain for most and ice to the north. Below is my map on what I expect. 

This initial burst of snow lasts a few hours then will change to freezing rain then plain rain for everyone outside of interior New England. By Sunday morning there should be no travel impacts for the NYC metro due to the surge in warm temperatures.

Then we turn our attention to a potential big storm around Thursday of next week. This has all the makings of a classic. Will it hold? Stay tuned. 

Monday Update: Final Forecast for Tomorrow

Below is my final forecast for late tomorrow into tomorrow night. Core of the heaviest snow will stay in the southern zones. After this storm departs we will then have another system to deal with Wednesday night. Expect snow to ice to rain with that system. More on that tomorrow. 

Sunday Update: Initial Forecast for Tuesday

Good afternoon. A very active pattern is ahead.

Quite the ice storm last night for spots. Totals where pretty erratic across NNJ and were highest as you got towards NE NJ. I saw some reports around 4". In Randolph we had 2.4" including sleet. Overall the forecast map did ok. I missed some of the higher totals in NE NJ and Long island.

Our next weather system moves in on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The focus should be more south this time. Below is my initial idea. I will update this tomorrow as I start to hone in on things.

We then have another system on Thursday that will be ice to rain for some spots and all snow to the far north in New England. More to come on that. 

Saturday Morning: Final Forecast

 Below is my final forecast. Storm moves in just after dusk tonight and is over by tomorrow morning. Snow to heavy sleet for some with all snow to the north. Rain to far south after an initial period of ice. 

Friday Update: Winter Storm Moves in Sat Night

 Below is my initial forecast for Sat night's winter storm. I will have a final forecast out tomorrow morning. Expect a front end burst of snow late tomorrow afternoon/evening with a changeover to sleet south of New England.

We then have more winter weather next week between Tuesday and Thursday I will be discussing. 

Wednesday Night Update: Three Winter Events Next 7 Days

Good evening. I cut a video to break down my thoughts on what could be quite the winter period over the next 7 days. Snow to ice moves in tonight, more snow and ice moves in Saturday night (could be heavier than tonight), then we have the potential for a big storm Tuesday into Wednesday. Winter looks to hold on into March this year. Buckle up. 

Tuesday Update: Winter Precipitation on Thursday Morning

 Good afternoon. On Thursday morning, will have our first of a series of winter storms that will impact the region as we march through Feb. At this time I like an initial burst of snow to the north before a changeover to liquid. All this occurs early Thursday morning. We then have another mixed winter precipitation event on Sunday followed by another threat middle of next week.

Here is the model I think represents Thursday the best. Initial burst of snow then things change to ice and light rain in southern zones. 

Sunday Feb 2nd Update: Snow Tonight

 Good afternoon. We will have a light snow event that moves through the region tonight. Expey one to two inches of snowfall by the morning. 

Things will then get mild for a few days before winter returns with a vengeance for the rest of February. I'm expecting multiple opportunities for accumulating snowfall as we head through the month even into early March. This will be accompanied by some impressive cold outbreaks as well. 

The first chance for a larger system will be around super bowl Sunday. Stay tuned. 

In the meantime here is a model snow map for tonight. This makes sense to me. 

Sunday Snowstorm Update: On Track

 Good morning. Our snowstorm is on track. Snow approaches by mid afternoon and picks up quickly in intensity. Snowfall rates up to 1" per hour. It will be a quick but hard hitter ending by around midnight. Below is my final forecast..

Brutal cold follows for Monday and Tuesday in its wake. Temps in the single digits each morning. Bundle up, deep winter is here!

Saturday Morning Update: No Changes

 Good morning. No changes to my forecast from yesterday. Tonight, I will release a final update and hone in on any finer details like the immediate costs, but overall I like what  I have..

In terms of storm evolution the model below best represents how I think this evolves. The storm is forming on a arctic front. Some models are too far west in handling this front. The GFS model is doing the best right now...

Start time is early Sunday afternoon into the night. This is over by Monday morning. Quick but hard 8 hour hit.

Stay tuned. 

Preliminary Forecast for Sunday's Snowstorm

 Good morning. Here are my initial thoughts for Sunday's winter storm. Start time looks to be in the afternoon. I will have a play by play this weekend as event approaches. 

Thursday Night Video: Update on Sunday's Snow Threat

 

Wed Night Note: Coldest air of Season Next Week. Shot at Snow

 The video below gives my thoughts on the next 7 days. We have a chance of light snow Monday followed by brutal arctic air. We then need to watch for a storm to develop in the Gulf. Enjoy!

Major Storm to Hit DC Area...Final Forecast

Hello everyone. I have been spending my of my time forecasting on X lately (@weatherwilly) but I will continue to update the blog if major winter events are approaching. 

Here is my final forecast for the snowstorm that will move into the Delmarva region tonight. 

Snow ends by Monday afternoon. This may be the biggest storm of the year for folks to the south.

We then turn our eyes to a potential large storm next weekend that will potentially hit areas further north. Stay tuned for more details on this as we approach mid week.