Good evening. Its funny, every year I contemplate if it is even worth putting out a winter forecast. Seasonal predictions are a very humbling experience. The weather will always do what the weather wants to do regardless how much research or modeling goes into a forecast. Regardless, I still put these out because I realize everyone finds them interesting and there have been years where I have been some years where my ideas did pan out.
The forecast is broken into two sections. In section one I have graphics and a quick summary of what I expect. In section two, I will have a video breaking down the research behind the forecast. I will release this video later this week.
Section 1: The Overall Forecast
Temperatures:
Snowfall:
Overall I expect an excellent ski season out west this year as a La Nina pattern and -PDO pattern will cause a lot of storm energy to hit the Pacific Northwest and move into the mountain regions. As this happens we will see warmer than normal temps take over for the eastern 1/3 at times.
However, I do expect the pattern to have some back and forth where energy consolidates along the east coast aided by high latitude blocking. This means that if we see high pressure to our north over Canada and Greenland the energy that hits the pacific northwest will get trapped under it as it approaches the east coast. This will help lock in colder air and cause winter storms.
The question is how often does this occur. I think the west coast pattern will be pretty consistent this winter and if that blocking is not in place for the east coast we will see mild weather. Early signs do indicate however that blocking should occur, which means there will be wintery periods in the east.
I expect above average snowfall for interior New England with average snowfall for the northern Mid-Atlantic and below average for areas to the south (due to southeast ridge). If we get one mega storm however, that can tip the scales for above normal snowfall for a much wider region. I am not dismissing this given how much water vapor is in the atmosphere.
In terms of timing, there are signs winter can get off to a fast start. I already see signs for New England to see snowfall in November and the question will a similar pattern hold for December for areas further to the south. Time will tell.
Section II: The Video
Stay tuned.
