Thursday: Very Little Snow Tonight, Mostly Rain...Bring on Spring

 Good morning. Our storm system for today has trended flatter. This means as cold air arrives the precipitation will be drying up. This will mean very little snow for most folks later tonight. Right now, there is no reason to even draw a map. The latest high res NAM model looks good to me showing snow accumulations in a few isolated mtn areas...

This is mostly rain for everyone today then a burst of snow at the end. Even though I think NNJ can see a few stray snowflakes there will likely be no accumulations...

So overall just expect rain today. Areas like Hunter Mtn may squeeze out a few inches. 

Friday is a chilly day, then things warm up for the rest of the weekend into next week. 

It was a solid winter season and one of the better Februarys on record in my backyard. I recorded over 60" of snowfall with 50" in February alone. Snow stayed on the ground in my backyard for over a month and was over 12"depth most of that time. 

That's all for now. 

Tuesday Weather Discussion: Some Snow on Tap for Some Thursday Night

Good morning. We have a storm system that will approach the area Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. It will initially be all rain then change to snow in areas to the north by Thursday night. Several inches can accumulate in the mountain regions of NY, Mass and southern VT. Further south a coating to 2" is possible. Before this storm moves in, it will cause a severe weather outbreak in the south today and tomorrow. Tornados are possible. 

Here is my preliminary forecast...

 

This is a tough one as some models do show more snow than what I have. However, given the late season I am going with my gut on this one. I think most of the snow is in places like the Catskills, Berkshires, Southern Greens and NW CT mountains. 

The best model right now imo is the high resolution NAM model in terms of rain/snow line...

The air is initially too warm for snow. However we have a cold high pressure system that will build in from the NW which will then funnel cold air into the storm changing the rain to snow in many areas...

As this occurs the rain changes to snow for many areas. By the time the cold air gets to areas like NNJ, i think most of the precipitation will have fallen, that is why I do not have as much snow down there.

As our upper level low exits, there should be some enhancement in snowfall in the higher terrain of VA, WVA, and MD seen below on Friday...

Btw, the upper level energy that will cause this storm will also result in severe weather today and tomorrow across the south. Some tornados are expected...

The storm prediction center is showing this threat...

Stay tuned for updated forecasts. 

Monday: Winter Airmass Over Region, Some Snow Possible This Week

 Good morning. We have an unseasonably cold airmass over the area currently. Temperatures are in the 20's and real feel temps are in the single digits for many. By tomorrow afternoon, some warmer air will attack this cold air from the southwest and potentially cause some snow to fall for areas to the NW. We then have a larger storm system to deal with on Friday which will bring rain and some potential snow for spots. 

Lets take a look..

Very cold air mass is currently over the region through tomorrow...

By tomorrow afternoon warm air advances into this cold airmass potentially causing some snow...

For areas in NW NJ NE PA and NY state, up to two inches can fall in elevated spots. Be on the lookout for this tomorrow afternoon.

Things then stay chilly rest of the week before another larger storm system then approaches on Friday...

At this time it does look like mostly rain outside of the mountains of New England. Models are indicating some cold air can be delivered at the end changing the rain to some snow for areas further south...

We will have to watch this very closely. Again this would be elevation driven, so areas in NW NJ, NE PA and NW CT into Mass could see some accumulating snow if this comes to fruition. 

In fact, the pressure pattern for this storm would be ideal if it was mid winter with a high pressure system sitting in the perfect spot to deliver cold...

This is why we need to watch this closely. Winter may be on its last legs but it is not over yet.

Stay tuned. 

Monday: Warm This Week, Winter Could Return After

 Good morning I am out in Utah skiing this week so posting will be limited. We have a nice spring like week on tap for the northeast. Temps will go into high 50s to low 60s in spots.

I believe this can be a false spring. Indications are by next weekend we can see one more gasp of winter develop in the Northeast. There is very cold air still in Canada and over the Pole. A pattern may develop that can cause this air to move into the Northeast next week. If this occurs winter is not over for many especially ski country. 

This late in the year the only way you can still see winter weather is with true arctic air. By next week there are hints artic air will move in due to pacific air being blocked off...

Image above is what I am talking about with potential very cold air seeded into the pattern. 

Thats all for now lets see what happens. 

Thursday: Brief Cold Period, Then Warm Next Week, One More Gasp 2nd Half March

 Good morning. It has been clear winter is pretty much over at this point for anyone near a coast in the east. A chilly period takes hold through the weekend then we have warm air move in for next week. Any snowpack that is still left should be taken care of by then.

After this period there is one more gasp of winter I see evidence of 2nd half of March It would likely be more focused on the interior/ski areas but there is always the chance flakes can still flow in higher elevations off the coasts as well.

Lets take a look..

Cold air over our region now and it will last thorough the weekend...

By next week the focus shifts out west (where I will be) and warm air takes hold over the east...

By middle of next week many areas see temps in 60s. It will truly feel like spring has sprung in the east!

We then just might have one more gasp of winter after this period. I base this on  some instability in the stratosphere which could cause a late season cold pool of air to descend into the country by middle of March with some blocking in place. Just worth mentioning at this time.

Overall, winter is over however. We ended up with over 60" this year in my location of NW NJ with 50" in February alone! I still have a 6-10" snowpack in many areas.

That's all for now. Stay tuned

Monday: Cold Air and Wind Moves in Tonight, Weekend Storm Looks Offshore

 Good morning. Well we had a fairly rainy weekend. Despite this, my snowpack still is sitting around 12" in shaded areas. The rain clears out today and very cold air moves in tonight. Expect very gusty winds as this front crosses the area later this afternoon into tonight. By tomorrow morning temps will plummet into the teens. As this front passes though later today, there is a chance of a few snow showers in areas like NE PA and NW NJ.

The cold air starts to moderate by Wednesday afternoon but stays chilly into the weekend. Although we will have a pattern that can produce a storm around the weekend, models are pretty insistent any development stays offshore. We will have to keep an eye on this.

Lets take a look...

The cold front moves in later today and temps plummet by tomorrow morning...

Highs on Tuesday will struggle to break freezing for many.

As this front moves through tonight the winds will really pick up. There is a wind advisory in effect. Below are wind gusts tonight...

I cannot rule out a few snow showers moving into some spots tonight as there may be enough instability to support even a few squalls (short intense burst of snow)..

Temps will stay cool through the whole week and mainly dry.

We still need to keep an eye on this weekend. All models have been insistent any storm development stays out to sea but the upper air pattern in place can cause this to change...

A few key pieces we like to see but the ridge is too far positioned to the east so the storm develops offshore. If over the next few days the ridge moves more west then this can turn into something. As I said, worth watching.

After this weekend, winters days are really numbered historically speaking. Sure there is always a shot but we will really start to flirt with spring for all areas outside of interior New England.