Memorial Day Weekend Outlook

Kind of hard to believe Memorial Day weekend is already approaching. Overall we should have a decent weekend on tap. Especially the latter half.

Summary:

• Upper level low pressure system lingers over the area through Saturday
• This means clouds mixed with a little sun Friday and scattered showers Saturday with temperatures around 70
• By Sunday and Monday everything is clear with sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

We currently have a weather pattern that involves a cut off upper level low to our south and high pressure to our north...

This upper low spins towards the area by tomorrow (Friday) causing some showers to break out mainly in the southern zones...

By Saturday the low is more directly over our area causing more clouds and unsettled weather. Saturday morning and afternoon look to feature some rain...

This does clear out however by Saturday night paving the way for a beautiful Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s Sunday and Monday with sunny skies.

Overall not too bad.

Enjoy. 

Storms Later Pave Way for Nice Weekend, Rain Next Week

Good morning. It is going to be a nice day overall. Temps soar into the 80s before a cold front and thunderstorms approach the area later today...

By late afternoon the storm should start firing up. Some can be severe in localized spots as there is enough instability and changing of wind directions with height ahead of the front.

Below shows wind speeds at different heights of atmosphere and shaded instability...

This means in isolated spots we have enough lift in the atmosphere and change of wind direction with height to have a few isolated storms ahead of the cold front later this afternoon. 

The weekend then look excellent with sunny skies and temps in the 70s.

We then have rain on tap as a tropical system interacts with a front on Monday and Tuesday...

This could potentially be a big rain maker and a very dynamic setup. Early next week is not going to be ideal.

Storms Tomorrow

Thunderstorms possibly severe are expected by later tomorrow afternoon. Stay tuned. Will do writeup later tonight.

Friday: Final Forecast for Tonight's May Winter Weather

Good morning. Below is my final forecast for tonight. Overall, I expect many areas inland over the higher terrain to see a changeover to snow late tonight. The accumulations will range from a coating in NW NJ above  900ft to a few inches across the Catskills, Greens, Berkshires, and White Mountains. 

Here is my forecast...

You will notice I tried to isolate the mountain regions. The Poconos for example I am thinking around and inch where I can see 1 to 3 inches across higher peaks to the north.

For the light blue zone in NW NJ, NW CT, Mass I do expect snow to fly. I do not think we see much accumulation other than a coating and a localized inch in some spots over 1000ft. It will be neat to see a changeover to snow late tonight across the area.

For the light green zone, no snow accumulation and mostly rain with the chance of a brief period of snow flakes at the tail end.

Lets look at latest model evolution...

Rain moves in later today for most areas...

By 11 pm the rain rapidly changes to snow across the higher terrain as arctic front arrives...

For you snow hunters out there (me) this is the time frame you want to be looking out your window in areas like NW NJ and NW CT.

By early morning this is targeting New England and Mass...

By daybreak Saturday this is over but we are left with a very cold brisk day with snow squalls in many regions due to the arctic air being centered over our area...

Temps will drop below freezing Saturday night in many areas and only hit 30s for highs.

This is extremely rare for May and its like you will not see weather like this late in the season again for a long time. 

May have some live footage later, stay tuned!

Thursday Update: Crazy Weather in Store: Where Will it Snow Tomorrow Night?

Will it snow on my birthday Saturday? Thats the million dollar question. At this time I am starting to hone in on what I think occurs. Overall here is what I think:

• A historical air mass directly from the Arctic will be moving in tomorrow night

• Energy from the pacific jet stream will try to round the base of this Arctic air an spawn a storm

• Where it snow will depend on exact final placement of the Arctic lobe of cold air

• Right now I still favor Poconos,Greens,Berkshires, and potently higher elevations of NW NJ,CT and Mass  to see accumulating snows early Saturday morning

• Other areas closer to coast can still see flakes fly just no accumulations
• There are outside scenarios the snow cam make it closer to the coast. I will be monitoring this

• Will have next update tomorrow morning

Lets take an updated look. The image below shows the arrival of the Arctic air...

This is incredibility impressive and historical for May. The dark green is the center of the air mass and a storm will form on its southern flank as energy rounds the base of it seen below...

The above is from the GFS model and does a decent job on what I think will occur with this in terms of snow placement in the image above. 

The European is a little more inland with the snow due to the Arctic air lobe being slightly more north...

This is definitely also a plausible scenario. 

Back to the GFS. The latest GFS model is doing something very interesting that the NAM model started hinting at last night. It is really digging in the arctic energy causing the snow to bloom more as the storm pulls away. This would be the snowiest possible scenario...

So what is the verdict at this time?

I think this snowfall projection is the best bet for now...

This comes from a completely different model but I like what its doing with overall placement. You may say its too conservative but I am not ready to fully jump on board yet.

Regardless of what happens, Saturday will be a winter like day with snow showers/squalls impacting many areas.

Buckle up crazy weather is on the way! Stay tuned!

Wednesday: First Look at Possible Interior Snow Saturday

These are interesting times. A true arctic air mass will be approaching the region on Saturday. As this air mass approaches low pressure will try to develop on its boundary and potentially move up the coast.  Now remember it is May and although it has snowed before in May the surface air is still going to be marginal for most areas ex the high elevations. Regardless this is a very interesting setup.  

If the storm does end up tracking up coast, I can see areas from the Catskills to the southern Green Mountains of VT/Berkshires getting accumulating snow with at least a trace of snow in the higher elevations of NW NJ, CT and the Poconos on Saturday early morning. Given its my birthday Saturday, that would be some present!


Lets take a look...

On Friday night air directly from the North Pole approaches the area...

This is extremely impressive for this time of year. What you are looking at is  a piece of the troposphereic polar vortex moving into the Northeast. In English this means the coldest air in the northern hemisphere moves into the Northeast directly from the North Pole. Low temps will be near freezing for many this weekend. 

As this occurs, energy coming in off the pacific will try to round the southern flank of this arctic air mass and develop a storm...

Now here is where the uncertainty comes into play. Because it is not the winter, we would need perfect placement of that vortex of cold air from the north pole to cause a snowy scenario.

If it is too far northwest the storm is mostly inland and snowing only in the highest peaks. If it is too far south, the storm is kept out to sea. 

The European model above shows the middle ground.

At this time I think the European makes sense and the risk is more west not east with this. The reason is I think there will be more of a natural boundary between warm and cold air that the storm will want to ride along. 

Due to this here is what I think is the best idea of where snow can fall. The below map shows probabilities of snow of at least 1"....

Notice NW NJ in to Poconos is in play here for at least something to fall along with the higher terrain of CT and Mass.


Stay tuned will keep updating on this. 

Tuesday Note: Winter Rises from the Dead This Weekend

Crazy as it sounds we have as impressive of a cold shot as you will see for early May on tap this weekend. Could be historical Flakes will be flying in the interior at high elevations.

Stay tuned, plan to do a write up on this tonight or tomorrow morning.