Wednesday Update: Nicest Stretch of Weather on Tap of Summer

Good morning. The heat has broke, the front has finally moved through (not without heavy rain and wind damage many spots), and the humidity is down!

This means the weather will be absolutely gorgeous through the weekend. Expect sunny skies with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s with very little humidity. This will be picture perfect weather.

That front that come through and lingered over the last 36 hours really left with it a punch. We saw areas of flooding and wind damage throughout the northeast. Cape Cod even had a tornado yesterday (photo credit New York Post)..

Yes this is is rare but it has happened before. In NJ and other areas we saw a lot of straight line wind damage from  the squall line of storms Monday night. Many lost power...

But the result of all this was a big cooler than normal air mass that now sits our area and will linger through the weekend. 

Humidity is low as seen by dew points...

Anything below high 60s feels great this time of year.

Up aloft we have a cold pool developing which will keep this cooler air locked for a few days...

The chances of rain are also slim through the weekend! 

So enjoy this nice stretch, the heat and humidity will make a return as it always does this time of year.

Tuesday Update: Big Time Heat to End this Week

Good morning. You may think it has been hot lately, but things are going to really heat up by the time we get to Friday and Saturday. The first heat wave of the summer will bring temperatures into the mid to upper 90s and possibly over 100 in some spots near the I-95. The heat will finally break on Sunday as a frontal passage moves through.

Before we get to the big warm up, the remnants of tropical storm Barry will move into the area on Thursday keeping things cooler and rainy...

In the wake of this rain Thursday, the big time heat then builds as an upper level ridge moves into the area...

This brings with it warm humid air from the southwest.

Here are temperatures Friday and Saturday..

Those bright red spots are places that the model is showing 100 degrees plus. The jury is still out if it gets that hot but regardless this is some dangerous heat.

The focus of the highest temperatures look to be the I-95 corridor.

Finally by Sunday cooler dry air moves in bringing much needed relief...

Thursday: Hurricane Threat Down in Gulf

Good morning. There has been a lot of buzz about a hurricane threat in the Gulf this weekend (Sat into Sun), so I wanted to do a quick post to update. 

Currently we have a disorganized low pressure center that is expected to strengthen over the warm gulf water next 24 hours...

The national hurricane center just updated their projected track and have this reaching strength of a Cat 1...

Current model ensembles show a similar path but also do show some potential this goes more west...

If the storm did go more west that expected then it would have more time to strengthen over the warm Gulf waters.

Currently the consensus is this reaches cat 1 strength with winds at least 74mph...

The HWRF hurricane model gives a good projection of the consensus forecast right now with landfall in Louisiana....

Over a foot of rainfall can drop in the hardest hit areas from this system. 

We are really going to have to pay close attention to this over next few days. Like I said if this lingers more than expected over water than it can strengthen more than what the current forecast is.


More to come. 

Monday Weekly Weather Summary/ 4th Outlook

Good morning. Figured I would write up a post given we have the holiday weekend approaching. We currently are under a beautiful weather regime with low humidity and temps in the low 80s today.

Temperatures will climb throughout the week as an upper level ridge develops over the region by the weekend...

This means by Friday we can see temps in high 80's to low 90s with some humidity.

When the weather gets hot and humid like this you can always expect some afternoon pop up showers and storms. I do not see any big organized fronts or anything like that at this time so rain should not be too much of an issue this week into the weekend.

I would say the best chance at afternoon showers and storm right now would be Thursday into the weekend as a few upper level disturbances can fire up storms. Again, these would be typical summer afternoon storms so not any rainy day washouts. 

Looking at the longer range I do not see any major sustained warm ups still. Just the typical few day waves of summer heat mixed with some cooler days. Given that we are now in the core of the summer I do not expect many rainstorm this month. The pattern of continuous rain that we saw in the spring will finally break. I am interested to see if the models shift to show any big heatwaves. I will keep you posted.

Enjoy the holiday week!