Halloween Update: Classic Trick or Treat Weather

Good morning and happy Halloween. We will have a typical fall day on tap with mostly sunny skies and temperatures hitting the low to mid 60s. By this evening temperatures will drop into the 50's for the trick or treaters. 

A warmer than normal pattern will then develop for Thursday and Friday. As we approach tomorrow night a low pressure system will approach the area causing rain into Friday morning...

The front associated with this will cool things down for the weekend. By Saturday  the weather returns to calm with temperatures in the 50s. 

Overall, I expect the 1st half of November to be fairly seasonable with back and forth conditions . By the 2nd half of November there are signs we can see the cold start to outbreak but the jury is still out on this. I am watching things evolve closely and will have more commentary on this as the days go on.

Friday Storm Update: Nor'easter Approaches Region

Good evening. As we enter the weekend, a nor'easter is inbound...

An impressive setup for a coastal storm that in the winter would yield some notable snow.  This time around it is a rain event with some snow up in the Mtns of New England. Expect rain to enter the region tonight and go strong into tomorrow morning...

Notice how in the mtns there is some snow showing up. This will likely be a few inches changing to mixed precip as the storm draws in warmer air in the upper levels. In any event, snowfall has not been scarce up there so far this month. 

Expect  the main rain to end by early afternoon with lingering showers to follow. By tomorrow night things should be ok.

Sunday is then on the cooler side with more showers approaching Sunday night as a trailing disturbance approaches from the north..

Will this all be a sign of storm tracks this winter? The fall does give hints so time will tell.

Monday Weather Update: Cold Air Arrives Early, Storm Chance This Weekend

Good morning. It feels more like November rather than October this morning with temperatures in the low 30's across the region. 

The culprit for this is fresh Arctic air that sits over the area...

You can see how its funneled right down from the far north. As the week progresses things will stay on the colder side as another cold intrusion enters region...

You can see how the air is directly funneling from northern Canada into our area.

The reason for this is blocking high pressure over western Canada as seen by the red color..

This blocks off the more mild Pacific air and allows that direct discharge from the north.

As we enter the weekend things get very interesting as there is a strong signal for a storm to develop along the eastern seaboard...

The pattern ahead of this potential storm is impressive with blocking high pressure over Greenland, a ridge out west and a low pressure center near 50/50. All key precursors to storm development as they allow energy to consolidate and lock in cold air...

Now its too early for any type of frozen precip along the I-95 and in fact, you do not want snow this early. The last time is snowed this early was 2011 and 2012 was one of warmest snowless winters of all time.

For the interior mountains of New England however, I would give this a good shot at producing some snow later this weekend...

I will be watching this closely and be posting updates.

The 2019 Winter Outlook

Welcome to the 2019 winter outlook! Its always a fun time of year when I get to share my speculation on what the upcoming winter season may bring. What I have learned over the years is no matter how much preparation and time is spent trying to project what Mother Nature might do for an upcoming winter, there will always be surprises.  Regardless of this, I always choose to take a stance and express my ideas with confidence. Below you will see a bullet point summary of what to expect, followed by impact maps, and then finally a video explaining how I made the forecast for those who care about those details.

Now before we begin, here was my temperature projection for last winter vs what actually happened. On both maps blue are below normal.

Last years forecast..

Actual..

Overall, this worked out very well actually.  That probably means this year's forecast will go up in smoke.

Joking aside, lets get to it!

Summary

Mid-Atlantic and Northeast:

• An old fashioned cold and snowy winter is on tap
• Bitter cold shots will start in November and last throughout the winter

• Above average snowfall for most areas with the epicenter being in the interior Mid-Atlantic into New England.

• The major Mid-Atlantic cities will see slightly above average snowfall
• The major New England cities will see snowfall well above average
• The interior Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will see the epicenter of snowfall
• A ski country special

• Two to three significant winter storms can be expected

The South:

• Expect a noticeably chilly winter with the chance of some snowfall

• Major cities will have the shot at light accumulations by the turn of the New Year (Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, etc.)

• There will be periods of moderation

The West:

• Expect warmer than normal conditions near the Pacific coast with a normal temperature pattern for the interior west.

• The northern Rockies should see slightly above average snowfall, with average to below average snowfall for all other western regions. 

The Heartland:

• The nations heartland should see an overall chilly but normal winter for snowfall.

My Outlook Maps:

So there it is. As you can see I am all in on a harsh winter for many areas. Now time will tell on if this all pans out. 

My video below gives further details and goes into the rational behind my forecast. 

Enjoy!

Friday: Fall Now In Full Swing, Winter Outlook out Monday

Good morning. High winds are now moving through the area as a strong cold front moves in. This cold front will result in a noticeable change in our weather as cooler and much drier feeling conditions take over. Based on what I see, this should end any hot and humid weather for this season.

Cold air that has been building in Canada is going to start hitting our area frequently over next several weeks...

This means chilly fall air with colder nights and potential for frost as October ages. It also means snowflakes will start flying in the mountains of New England!

We have started our decent into winter. Stay tuned for Monday's 2018 Winter Outlook!

Wednesday Update: Major Hurricane Michael Barrels Into Panhandle

Good morning. As a reminder my Winter Outlook is out Monday!

On a more serious note, we have a major Cat 4 hurricane currently raging in the gulf..

This is expected to hit the Florida panhandle as a cat  3 or 4 storm later today into tomorrow morning. This means winds possibly of 130mph plus!

Expect wind damage and storm surge flooding with this storm. Although it will not linger like the North Carolina hurricane did, it will hit land as a much more powerful storm.

The radar image looks intense..

Here is National Hurricane Center track...

There latest advisory is dire...

I am late to the game on this one folks due to the fact I just returned from my wedding. 

Regardless, this will be one of the stronger storms on record to hit the panhandle. 

Stay tuned. 

Tuesday Long Range Update: Cold Stays West

Good morning. It has been a busy few weeks for me, hence the limited posting. In any event, fall is now underway! 

Today I wanted to discuss the weather pattern over the next two weeks...

Overall a warmer than normal pattern should be taking hold for October as a ridge of high pressure (quite impressive in nature) develops over the east, with a deep trough over the west...

This translates to warmer than normal temperatures over at last the next 10 days overall. For this time of year that means 70's for the most part. The sun is weaker now and it is much harder to see anything that resembles the summer heat we became accustomed to. Still, there will be some noticeably warm days. 

Do not be fooled however, there is alot of cold air in Canada building right now...

This dips into the western US causing snowfall over the next week in the Rockies along with northern plains...

The seasons are changing! 

As we enter the 2nd half of October, there is evidence some of this cold air can start to push east into our region. I still think any sustainable cold is at least a month away but eventually the "dam" will break over the east.



Thats all for now. Stay tuned for the WINTER OUTLOOK ON OCT 15TH!