Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Strong to Severe Storms Tonight

Good morning. This warm muggy air mass currently over the region will set the stage for big thunderstorms to fire up later this afternoon into this evening as a cold front approaches from the west.

The Storm Prediction Center has our area under an enhanced watch...

Front approaches from the west and the storms should start to enter the NJ area around 4-6pm...

Some of these storms will feature strong straight line wind, heavy rain, thunder and lightning. The best chance for the biggest storms will be west of the city where the air mass is  most unstable.

You can see a metric that gauges instability (ability for air to rise) in the atmosphere will be elevated...

Also, we have a very saturated and humid air mass for the cold front to run into...

Once the front approaches all of this warm moist air will rise condense and form towering clouds causing the storms.

By around 8-10pm all these storms should be cleared out.

The rest of the week then is moderate with temperatures in the low to upper 80's with the chance at more storms later in the week.

I will be tracking this on twitter later today @weatherwily