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Friday, May 29, 2015

Friday Weekend Weather Update: Make Your Plans for Tomorrow, Sunday Looks Wet

Good afternoon. I hope everyone had a good week and are looking forward to relaxing this weekend. This weekend will feature a mixed bag of weather. We have a nice summer like day tomorrow (Saturday) then things will go downhill from there as a low pressure system develops along a front and stalls. This means yes rain for Sunday and possibly though Monday! Models differ a little on how this evolves but lets take a look.

 High pressure remains in control offshore tomorrow promoting the nice weather overall. There could be a few pop up thunderstorms but I am not too concerned at this point..


Notice however that low pressure system over the Mississippi Valley. That is what is going to sweep its cold front into our area Sunday...

Looking above you can see the showers and storms moving into the area for Sunday as that front establishes itself.  This lingers though Monday..
What you are now seeing above is a stationary front (the stalled cold front from Sunday) with a low pressure center developing along it on Monday. This would extend the rain and possibly pile up some impressive totals. We will have to see if this extension of the rain really ends up being a big deal. As I said before not all models are on board with the impressive rainfall totals. 

 To put a little more prescriptive on this. I included below a view of the jet stream. You can see the trough or dip in the jet stream over our area for Sunday and Monday..


The red lines represent the flow of the air. We will have a moist southeast flow from the Gulf which will help enhance the rain totals along that stationary front.

 In any event, not the greatest end to the weekend in store but we salvage one day which is better than nothing. 

 I know I said I had an El Nino post coming and I do! It was a crazy week at work and I will hopefully be able to get it out sometime this week. Stay tuned and enjoy the weekend!
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2 comments:

  1. AnonymousJune 1, 2015 at 8:39 AM

    If we had this set-up back in January or February, we might have had a 2 foot snowstorm ! But definitely welcome right now, the flower and veggie gardens will finally get their kick-start, and all the big-lawn people will save on their water bills. Looking forward to El Nino report, but no hurry, looks like it might be around for a while. Jim G

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  2. AnonymousJune 2, 2015 at 8:18 AM

    Willy, one more request when you get out the crystal ball and look at the big trends, especially El Nino. I've been reading some stuff lately about the Atlantic going into a cold phase; the AMO may be going into a multi-decade negative phase. So what's up with that, and what are the implications for the north NJ metro area? I'm wondering about coastal thermoclines, would they become more level and thus degrade the precipitation events from west-east zonal flows? I'd imagine that tropical storms won't be as prevalent, but what about continental coastal storms such as Noreasters? Just some SWAG from my end, wonder what your more detailed analysis would be on this. I gather that the Pacific is still the big Kahuna as far as weather trends go, but we might want to take a look over our shoulders too, see what's going on off of Cape May or Point Montauk. Jim G

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