Monday, June 26, 2017

Monday Morning Weather Summary: Beautiful Week Ahead

Good morning! The humid air of late last week has cleared out and we are entering a stretch of gorgeous weather over the next few days. Mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the 70's to lower 80's will be the theme all week. 

All this is due to an upper level trough or dip in the jet stream over our area seen in blue...

This keeps winds coming from the west northwest hence the cooler drier air we will be experiencing.

There will be a few frontal boundaries moving through the area can cause a few stray showers as the week moves on but I do not expect much until at least the end of this week where a larger low pressure system up in Canada can cause enough forcing to cause some showers to pop up over the region Thursday into Friday...


A warm front then looks like it wants to move through this weekend which will cause temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 80's with unsettled weather. I will keep an eye on this as the week progresses.

Looking at the long range...

Taking a quick look at the long range I do not see any data supporting sustainable heat over the east at this time. We will have our warm shots but the pattern overall looks to keep things more mild and active as we head towards July. This means temperatures mostly in the 80's which I do not think anyone will be complaining about.


More at the end of this week. 

Friday, June 23, 2017

Friday Weather Update: Muggy Tropical Day on Tap

Good morning everyone. Today will feature very humid unsettled conditions as a bunch of weather systems move through the area. We have a lot of energy in the upper atmosphere moving through thanks to former Tropical Storm Cindy and an approaching upper level trough. The image below shows all of this energy heading towards the area..



This energy brings with it very humid air. The image below shows the water content in the air...

This will make things feel very muggy today and provide good fuel for heavy showers and storms to develop today into tomorrow morning. 

You can see as we get towards the afternoon, the unsettled weather moves in...

This will continue all day into early Saturday morning. By mid morning Saturday all this should have moved through. 

The humid air should start to ease later in the day on Saturday as a front moves in from the west. This will pave the way for a beautiful day on Sunday with temperatures in the upper 70's under mostly sunny skies. 

Monday, June 19, 2017

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Strong to Severe Storms Tonight

Good morning. This warm muggy air mass currently over the region will set the stage for big thunderstorms to fire up later this afternoon into this evening as a cold front approaches from the west.

The Storm Prediction Center has our area under an enhanced watch...

Front approaches from the west and the storms should start to enter the NJ area around 4-6pm...



Some of these storms will feature strong straight line wind, heavy rain, thunder and lightning. The best chance for the biggest storms will be west of the city where the air mass is  most unstable.

You can see a metric that gauges instability (ability for air to rise) in the atmosphere will be elevated...

Also, we have a very saturated and humid air mass for the cold front to run into...


Once the front approaches all of this warm moist air will rise condense and form towering clouds causing the storms.

By around 8-10pm all these storms should be cleared out.

The rest of the week then is moderate with temperatures in the low to upper 80's with the chance at more storms later in the week.

I will be tracking this on twitter later today @weatherwily


Monday, June 12, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Bring on the Heat

Good morning. Our warmer than normal air mass arrived yesterday and it will persist until Wednesday. You can see below the high pressure system to our southeast bringing in the warm air from the south...


Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 90's. There will humidity in the air but it will not be as bad as it could be due to some drier air mixing in from the upper levels of the atmosphere.  Regardless, very hot day today.

The same hold true for Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the low 90's with sunshine. 

Releif from the heat comes on Wednesday as a backdoor cold front moves in from Canada...

This will break the heat as it approaches and high temperatuers will fall into the low 80's for Wednesday and into the 70's for Thursday and Friday.

On Friday however this frontal boundary drifts back north causing the chances for unsettled weather into the weekend.

Expect numerous showers to pop up Friday into the Weekend as impulses along this frontal boundary cause air to rise. You can see below the models trying to show this...

More of the same Saturday...


This doesn't mean all cloudy days with washouts. It means a mix of clouds and sun with a good chance of showers moving through. 

Highs will be in the upper 70's to low 80s for the end of the week.

Thats all for now I will keep my eye on the weekend in case anything changes. 

Friday, June 9, 2017

Friday Weekend Update: Summer Arrives

Good morning. We finally get a break for the choppy weather and begin our stretch of summer like weather this weekend. 

Today will feature mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70's to low 80s.

As we get to Saturday, high pressure moves into control and result in a warm southwest flow of air into the region. This is where things start to heat up. Expect temperatures to reach the mid to upper 80's with Sunshine.

Sunday into early next week will be hot and humid. Expect temperatures in the low 90's for most spots. 

The heat arrives due to an upper level ridge of high pressure forming over the east...


This blocks out any large scale weather systems and allows us to move into a normal summer pattern of daytime heat and potential afternoon thunderstorms if conditions permit.

Looking at the longer range models it does appear this is a sustainable pattern change. This means welcome to summer!

Enjoy the weekend. 

Monday, June 5, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: More Unsettled Weather, Hot Next Week?

Good morning. As the story has been all spring, the pattern of cooler and unsettled weather will continue into this week. This  means multiple chances of showers with cloudy skies through most of this week. Temperatures will also be on the chilly side, especially tomorrow and Wednesday. Lets take a look...

A few rounds of showers will pass through southern areas today.....


As a cold front sags south tomrorow, more showers will fire up throughout the region from the morning into the afternoon...


By Tuesday late afternoon these showers should end and cooler conditions prevail into Wednesday as high pressure keeps the cold front to our south...


Wednesday will feature temperatures in the high 60's to lower 70's with mostly cloudy skies. Some sun will poke through. 

As we get into Thursday things will get a little warmer with temperatures in the 70's  with mostly cloudy skies. I do think some sun can break though Thursday but it is a tough call at this time.

By Friday, things warm up into the low 70's with mostly sunny skies. This should continue into the weekend although this is a high volatility pattern so we will have to watch closely. 


What is going on this spring?

Well as I mentioned in previous posts, the atmosphere is all clogged up along the east due to blocking of the jet stream. The image below shows this...


We have areas of high pressure to our west and to our north. This forces the jet stream south over the east coast (blue) causing cooler and unsettled conditions. This pattern has been very consistent over the past month. Will it break?

The good news is there are signs that this pattern can start to break down next week...


Notice in image above the models are hinting we can see the opposite with high pressure developing in the east which would allow warm air form the south to rise into the region. It is likely that next week will feel more like early summer. The question does remain however if this pattern will last or revert back to more of the same.

Time will tell.