Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Tuesday Morning: Waiting and Seeing

Good morning. There is not really to much I can add from yesterday's post. The period to watch is this weekend as a small disturbance might effect the region Friday with a larger storm threat on its heals. At this time, there is no real support from models to make any bold predictions. Most guidance takes the storm systems south our our area as the upper level energy does not amplify properly. The key will be to wait till about Wednesday to see if any of this changes. Thus, we are just speculating at this time.

You can see how models are south over the weekend..


This is due to the flow too flat and unorganized. If you want a stronger storm that at least has a chance of moving more north, you need to change a few things..


For one, the southern piece of energy circled needs to be sharper and less flat. That northern piece also has to dive in sharp enough to help turn a developing storm north. Right now no models show that. The only reason I am not calling this threat off is the fact that these "players" are not on the field yet meaning the energy is not property sampled by the models (it is way off the country). By the time we get to Wednesday, I should be able to say if this has any merit as those disturbances will be in better sampling range for the models. 

So we will see what happens. I always want to show you guys what can happen as opposed to what the models just project will happen. That makes things more interesting.

More to come. 

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