Good morning. This post is a follow up to my last post that discussed the potential pattern change late month into February. This would follow the current mild spell we are going to see over at least the next 10 days. Nothing has really changed from what I discussed on Friday so I figured I would share some updated model projections.
But first, a nice mountain snowstorm hits New England today with rain to the south..
Several inches of snow possible at the high elevations with this system.
As we head into the middle to end of this week the warm air builds in..
Remember warm for this time of year does not mean 65, that would be a blow torch. This is more of a mild pattern with temperatures in the high 40's and low 50's.
We have the potential for a big driving rain storm early next week...
Then the question becomes what will follow. All the data still supports a turnaround. Lets look at the models valid end of next week.
Notice by late next week they are all showing pressures (red) build out to the west. With a key trough south of the Aleutian Islands and lower pressures (blue) in the east. This pattern is projected to possibly lock in for February. If that happens then February is a wintery month.
We also still have support from the stratosphere which is currently warming and could turn into a sudden warming event...
This is current state way up in the stratosphere. Notice the warming taking place. This is projected to continue and put stress on the polar vortex. This would increase the chances for cold air to filter into the country as February gets underway. This is never a factor to overlook.
So as the title of my post says we are waiting and seeing. The models and their projected atmospheric factors look great but remember they are still PROJECTIONS. We need to now see where the rubber hits the road. If it does, then we could be having a lot of fun this February.
I will discuss this all over a video sometime this week.