Thursday, January 26, 2017

Thursday Weather Update: Winter Will Return, For Now

Good morning everyone. We have some changes approaching weather wise as our mild spell fades away and we go more into a seasonal pattern as we enter this weekend through at least the 1st week of February. 

A cold front will move through tonight ushering in the new air mass..



This means that by this weekend into next week high temperatures will be back in the 30's for many areas. 

Up in the high peaks of New England the ski resorts should see some moderate mountain snows this weekend as disturbances aloft enhance mountain up sloping...



Through next week, we will be seeing more of a clipper pattern meaning weak low pressure systems move in from Canada giving areas light snow possibly down to the big cities at times. At least it will feel like winter again.

You can see below the nature of this pattern which is supported by more riding of high pressure to the west and a broad trough in the east..


Seasonal drivers are starting to change. The la nina is fading and the stratosphere is under a period of sudden warming as seen below...






This major factor alone means the chances of this colder pattern holding for most of February are increasing. The timing of this stratospheric warming is ideal. We will usually see a response in the lower atmosphere in the 2-3 week period, which in this case could support a colder than normal February as the polar vortex is knocked off axis. I am also interested to see if we get more consistent ridging of high pressure out west. That would be a major key to locking this pattern in. Right now models are back and forth on this.

Big storms are another story however as many factors would need to come together. There has been some chatter about bigger storm activity post Superbowl weekend but I am not ready to discuss that yet. Lets see how the next few days play out and take it from there. From my standpoint of a winter weather lover, it could be a lot worse based on the changes I see coming. Lets hope we all are in for a surprise, winter is certainty not old yet. 

More on this Friday. 

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