Saturday, December 31, 2016

New Years Eve Discussion: Winter Storm Late Week?

Happy New Years Eve! The short video below breaks down the weather over the next week including a first look at the potential for a winter storm late in the week. As always details are still very unclear and this can go either way at this point. 


Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Wednesday Morning: Major Snowfall for Parts of New England Tomorrow into Friday

Good morning. Latest data has not backed off on a major snowstorm for part of interior New England. This is a ski country delight.

Here is a summary:


  • Low pressure system develops tomorrow morning along frontal boundary
  • Initially this causes snow to fly tomorrow morning in central-north PA, NW NJ (higher elevations) and parts of CT
  • As the storm deepens rapidly off the coast tomorrow afternoon/night NH and ME get the brunt of this system with accumulations likely over a foot
  • Areas near the coast in New England are a mix/rain but can see snow on the back end as this explosively deepens tomorrow night
  • Storm is over by Friday morning
  • The overall weather pattern gets very cold and active as we enter January
    • Stay tuned for more info on this
Here is my snowfall map..



And my short video breaking this impressive storm system down..


Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Major New England Snowstorm Possible: Details Still Emerging


6pm update: No video tonight, my thoughts have not changed much. Tomorrow AM will have snow map out with video included. This is not a mid-Atlantic storm it will hit ME, NH and parts of VT and Mass. I am interested to see if there are any eastern trends that develop tonight that would limit snowfall. 

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Good morning everyone. I am off this week from work so I have a little more time to focus on the weather. I mentioned on Saturday that we had to keep an eye out of storm development late this week for New England. Latest model data continues to come in and it indicates this storm can in fact form and become a real threat.

Here is a summary:


  • A low pressure area is expected to form along an approaching front on Thursday
  • This low pressure system is projected by some models to rapidly intensify as it tracks just off the cost of Long Island into the Gulf of Maine
  • Depending on the actual intensity of this low, it is likely that heavy snow will break out for areas in New England
    • This includes most of MA, VT, NH, ME and some of CT
      • Heavy accumulations possible
    • Further to the south snow can fall in NE PA, NW NJ and SE CT
      • Accumulations can range from light to moderate in these areas
  • The time frame for this projected storm is Thursday afternoon into Friday.
  • This has the POTENTIAL to be a major coastal storm for New England

There remains a spread in the models but this is my first map breaking the situation down..



Right now this is a very difficult forecast. The short range North American model and the European model insist this storm blows up off the coast while the flagship American Model (GFS) is not as impressed with the coastal development. What else is new?

My forecast comes from my interpretation of all the data along with historical comparisions. That leads me to belive that this storm will be a compromise between the aggressive short range American model (NAM) and the GFS. The map above is a weighted blend of each.

So lets take a look at what is going on. Looking at the most agressive scenerio first, the NAM model rapidly intensifies a storm due to amplified short wave energy at 18000ft..



Looking above we have the more amped up solution on the left (NAM model) and less impressive situation on left (GFS). Just know that the more sharp the trough is the stronger the storm is. 

Here is the surface projections..

NAM model..


GFS..



I will have a video out breaking this down along with updated model data tonight at 5pm.

Winter Storm to Effect New England Thursday into Friday

Post will be live soon breaking it down. Parts of Pa and NW NJ can be effected too.

Saturday, December 24, 2016

Merry Christmas! Snow Chances Increase at Turn of the Year

Merry Christmas everyone! I discussed in my video the other day how models are now starting to pick up on a colder pattern heading into January. I also mentioned how we need some blocking or a -NAO (high pressure over Greenland) to give the mid-Atlantic the shot at snow. Models have continued their trend and it looks like we will at least have the chance at the white stuff in the 1st if not 2nd week of January.

Summary:


  • Warmer than normal air through Thursday of this week
  • A storm then could develop Thursday into Friday producing snow for interior New England bringing colder than normal air in its wake
  • The upper air pattern is supporting this cold to become more sustained as January gets underway due to high pressure over Greenland and Alaska 
  • Mid-Atlantic and east coast needs to keep an eye on early next week as the pattern COULD be favorable for storm development


As we approach next weekend, signals are there for a potential storm to develop for the interior. The mid-Atlantic and coast will be too warm ahead and the set up is not ideal for that region. You can see below how I outlined the factors that can produce this storm for the interior..

From European ensemble..


Keep in mind the euro ensemble has over amplified things this year so take this with a grain of salt. However, the threat is def there for the NE ski areas. 

Following the passage of this wave, then things really can get interesting as the pattern POTENTIALY gets  more faorable as a block can develop over Greenland..


 I show what needs to change on this image with the dotted lines for a storm threat. What I like to see is a well established block over Greenland (-NAO) and a ridge of high pressure into AK (-EPO) feeding cold into the pattern. Think of the -EPO as the feeder and the -NAO as the preserver of this cold over the east.  We will have to watch how this evolves as we head to early next week.

Thats all for now, my confidence is growing that action looms. Lets see how it plays out.

Merry Christmas!

Thursday, December 22, 2016

Thursday Morning Pattern Update: Cold Will Return in 2017

Good morning everyone. As a follow up to my Monday discussion I cut a video breaking down the weather pattern over the next two weeks. This winter will not die easy this year and if a few things come together we can get into a snowy pattern eventually. Patience is key. In the meantime things will moderate over the next 7-10 days.

Here is a summary:


  • Moderating temperatures through Christmas
    • This means slightly above average (mid to high 40's most spots)
  • As we approach towards the New Year, evidence in the pattern is developing that shots of colder than normal air resume
  • If we get any big storms or not will depend on the pressure pattern over Greenland
    • That remains to be seen
Enjoy the video..


Monday, December 19, 2016

Monday Morning Pattern Update: A Turn in the Tide

Good morning everyone. Well, the weekend storm system ended up being a mess as mostly predicted. The snowfall amounts hit the lower end of my range barely. In NJ the highest amount I saw was 5" all the way up in Sussex county but other areas got 2-3" with less to the south. That includes the ice that fell. Overall I give myself a C on that forecast.

Lets move on to the overall pattern over the next two weeks. Here is a summary of my talking points:


  • Cold air over the region today filters out by Wednesday giving way to more seasonable conditions
    • Seasonable means low to mid 40's for many areas
  • As we head to Christmas weekend things get a little warmer with temperatures going towards the upper 40's for highs
  • The weather pattern then maintains its current transition to seasonable-mild through at least the New Year
  • This means limited chances at winter events during this time period
  • Major question marks remain if and when this transitions back to a colder and stormier set up
  • We need to take this one week at a time as models have struggled this year
So lets dive into details. When we look at what the weather pattern has in store we always look up to the flow of the jet stream and in particular high and low pressure areas at 18000ft. As we head into the next two weeks a distinct pattern of lower than normal pressures in the west, higher than normal pressures in the east and more importantly lower than normal pressures over Canada...


This is the opposite pattern of cold and snow for the east. We have no high pressure over Greenland (+NAO)) or the pole (+AO). This alone gives cold air the chance to stay locked up to the north. We also have no high pressure over the west (-PNA). This allows a ridge of warm air to rise along the east. I will note, this is not a complete blow torch of warm as the pattern in the pacific is still wavy meaning its not a complete fire hose jet screaming across the whole country. Areas like New England mountains can still see snow in this pattern.

What is concerning me along with these model projections is the changes in the stratosphere. Most models now all project the stratospheric vortex strengthens over next week or so. You can see this below..

This influences the pressure pattern lower in the atmosphere. When you have a cold and strong stratosphere like seen above, it results in lower pressures over the pole which helps keep the cold air locked up to the north.  

All these factors line up to make the teleconnections look as bad as they can possibly be..


A -PNA means low pressures in the west, a +NAO means low pressures near Greenland, a +WPO means low pressures in the northwest Pacific and finally a +EPO means low pressures in Gulf of AK. Again, not the pattern for winter in the east. 

It will be critical to see if as we head into Jan if this trend starts reverse. It certainty is not out of the question that it can. Many winters have periods of mild weather followed by winter returning. What is bothering me however is that we barely experienced winter in the Mid-Atlantic so far this season. Sure we had a few big cold shots and SOME winter precipitation but nothing very widespread. I would be lying if I said December was a memorable so far.The country as a whole was very cold and our area has been colder than normal but this will moderate before December ends. You can see below temperature departures from normal so far this month..

MUCH different than last years historical warm December..


At the end of the day when we look back on this current month given the moderation coming, we will say it was OK. 

So as we enter January its more of a wait and see mode. IF we get high pressure over Greenland (-NAO) I believe despite the lack of high pressure or riding over the west coast this winter will deliver in the east. We just do not know yet at this time if that will occur. The models are trying to show it develop in January as seen by the red over Greenland below..

This would not be a horrible pattern believe it or not. The issue is I do not trust these long range models. We need to take this one week at a time this year.

Bottom Line: The pattern will moderate over the next two weeks and it remains to be seen how things turn out after then. I am not calling winter off I am just pointing out my current observations. 

I am sure a few surprises will be thrown our way.

Thanks for reading. 

Saturday, December 17, 2016

Saturday Morning 6am Update: Snow Changes to Ice Between 7-10 am Most Spots

Snow is currently spread through most of the region...



The ice line is south and will quickly work its way north over next few hours (image below is 9am)...



Surface temps hang in there however causing slick conditions..



Storm is out of here by early afternoon...



Updated snowfall projections through this time..



Add about 1/2 to 1 inch to these totals from what is on ground now (as of 6am I measure 1" in Morristown NJ).  We will see a few localized 2 inch amounts reported in central nj and a few 4 inch amounts in NNJ when its all said and done. 

When final snow reports come in we will compare results as always. 


Friday, December 16, 2016

Friday Night Video Forecast: The Play by Play for Tomorrow

Good evening. Forecast is on track for the most part. Icing is going to be a big concern for many areas at the dawn hours as surface temperatures hold tough as warm air works its way in the upper atmosphere. From NNJ into New England it will be critical to see how the cold air hangs on. If we get more of a coastal development of a low pressure center then the cold hangs in longer.

Updated Summary:

  • Snow breaks out in most areas around Midnight
  • By 4am snow starts to change to ice south and central
  • By 7am its all freezing rain and sleet except for NNJ into New England where snow can hang on
    • Roads will not be in good shape at this time
  • If cold air hangs in long enough accumulations will be enhanced in those areas towards upper part of my range
  • Storm over by afternoon with mild air


Enjoy the video:


Friday Morning: Final Snowfall Forecast for Saturday Morning

Good morning. I have updated my preliminary map to a final forecast for tomorrow...




I made some tweaks to the south reducing amounts as I expect a changeover from snow before dawn Saturday.  

Here is a summary:


  • Snow breaks out around mid-night from south to north in all areas
  • Snow then changes to ice and rain from south to north
  • Green Zone: Snow changes to rain  before dawn
  • Blue Zone: Snow changes to rain/ice by 7am
  • Northern Zones: (NNJ into New England): Snow changes to ice/rain by mid morning 
  • Sleet can cut down my accumulations in the dashed yellow zone 
  • Storm ends with mild temperatures heading into Sunday
After it is all said and done, northern zones see a nice moderate snowfall.

Here are some graphics..

Snow arrives around midnight...



Snow changes to ice and rain to the south by dawn..

By mid morning the ice line is working north..

By the afternoon the storm is pulling away with warm air in its wake. Rain showers to follow..


Video update tonight at 7!

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Quick Evening Update: Updated Thoughts on Snow

Final forecast tomorrow, I foreshadow some of my thoughts on snow amounts.


Thursday Morning Video Discussion: A Closer Look at Saturday's Snow Chances

Bundle up! Its going to be brutal out there today. Temps will crash and wind chills will make it feel like the single digits! Highs will reach the teens to low 20's with winds whipping 20-25 mph. This arctic air will be no joke and remains in area through tomorrow.

The very short video below breaks down what to expect for Saturday morning's snow event. I discuss how some details might change when I put out my final forecast tomorrow especially where I have the snow cut off line. Be sure to check in for that update.

Enjoy...




The preliminary forecast from yesterday stands for now. Again, this is updated tomorrow morning into a final forecast..



Next update later tonight around 8pm.

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Wednesday Morning: Preliminary Forecast for Saturday Morning

Good morning everyone. We are within 72 hours of our next potential snowfall so it is time  release my first prediction for Saturday morning. I will have a final forecast by Friday with any necessary tweaks..



Here is a summary:


  • Brutal arctic air arrives tomorrow and lasts through Friday
    • Highs will only be in the low 20's Thursday and Friday with lows in the single digits to teens!!!
    • Winds will also be whipping making wind chills sub-zero in many spots
  • Snow breaks out in most regions very early Saturday morning (pre-dawn)
  • At this time it looks like this initial burst of snow can be heavy and will stick very quickly given the frigid air mass ahead  of it
  • As we approach mid-morning into early afternoon the snow changes to rain for most areas as warm air surges in
    • I expect however that most of the liquid falls as snow prior to that happening
  • In dark blue zone expect 3 to 5 inches with over 6 in the mountain ranges
  • In the light blue zone expect 1 to 3 as a changeover occurs quicker
  • In the green zone expect an initial inch of snow changing to rain fairly quickly
  • Temps warm up for Sunday reaching the high 40's to low 50's


Arctic front arrives tomorrow as the polar vortex skirts by to our north (very impressive)..


Snow squalls (intense short bursts of snow) will hit scattered areas and can make their way to NJ tomorrow as well with the passage of this front..



Now on to the storm..


Most models agree the snow arrives early Saturday morning..



It then picks up in intensity by dawn...


By late morning/early afternoon the warm air surges in..


What ever falls gets melted significantly on Sunday as temperatures will be mild. We then have more action to monitor for next week.

More to come, keep checking in. I will have a video out late tonight or tomorrow morning breaking it all down. 

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Tuesday Morning: Brief but Brutal Shot of Arctic Air Upcoming, Snow Saturday, Question Marks After

Good morning. We have a very interesting week ahead. Cold temps give way to bitterly cold temps by Thursday and Friday with the chance at snow changing to rain Saturday. Our old friend the polar vortex will briefly pass by Thursday and Friday causing a crash in temperatures. Here is a summary of the upcoming period..

First, here were the results from Sunday night's storm vs my forecast from Saturday morning..


 You guys can be the judge.

Now to the Summary:
  • Chilly temperatures through tomorrow with highs reaching the upper 30's to low 40's
  • A lobe of the polar vortex brings along with it an arctic front that will pass through the area Thursday and Friday
    • Highs will be in the low 20's to teens north for both days!
    • Low temperatures will be in the teens to single digits!
    • BUNDLE UP
  • Along with the cold, Thursday could feature a few snow showers
  • A storm system approaches from the west Saturday morning
    • Initially snow can break out potentially accumulating a few inches in most spots by mid morning
    • Warm air surges in and the snow changes to rain
  • Following this weekend, the long range pattern is up in the air
    • Evidence things can moderate through the holidays
So lets take a look at all of this. A lobe of the polar vortex moves through Thursday and Friday...

This brings with it bitterly cold temperatures for Thursday and Friday (highs in teens to low 20's south). Check out the temperatures at 7am Friday morning..


As this cold air approaches Thursday snow squalls can break out in the interior. Some of these may make it towards the coastal states. The warm lakes enhance all of this..



Then the fun starts as  a storm system approaches from the west Saturday morning..


Given the cold air in place, this storm should produce snow Saturday morning for most areas. A few inches of accumulation is possible Saturday morning. 

However, since we do not have the set up to keep this cold air locked in, warm air eventually surges in and changes the snow to some rain by Saturday afternoon..


Image below shows the flow of this surge of warmer air from the south..


Following this weekend things then remain up in the air for the fate of this weather pattern. Next week is a wild card as a few cold shots could produce some more back and forth weather (rain/snow) as low pressure waves may develop along the boundary of warm and cold air. 

There is absolutely evidence that things moderate as we get towards Christmas. Overall, the upper air pattern does not look favorable for any big storm development towards the big cities..


The models have been consistent in developing a trough of low pressure in the west and a ridge of high pressure in the east for the long range. Also they have been showing lower pressures over the poles. This means moderating temperatures with low chances of snow if verified. At this time I am confident in this relaxation of the weather pattern in the long range. The big question mark is will things reload for January. We honestly just have to wait and see. These long range models have been very poor as of late.

HERE IS THE IMPORTANT POINT...we need to take on things one at at a time this winter. We got this arctic shot and storm system for late week. Lets get through this first then focus on next week then focus on week 2+. I have a big feeling that these models will be completely spastic the longer out you go. If you just follow them run after run you will become spastic as well.

A steady hand should prevail this year.

More to come tomorrow. 

Monday, December 12, 2016

Updated Post up Tonight

Storm has moved through mid-atlantic and now is dropping snow up in New England. We will tally the totals later today and see how my map made out. So far looks like 1 to localized 3 inches fell up in extreme NW NJ.

I will also have a pattern update to go along with it. Brutal cold air returns end of this week as a piece of the polar vortex moves near the region. Post out around 8pm.

Sunday, December 11, 2016

Sunday Night Video Update: Light Snow Breaking Out, Changeover Tonight

Sunday Morning Forecast Update: On Track

Good morning everyone. I am making no changes to my forecast from yesterday. Below is an updated summary with graphics of what to expect tonight into tomorrow.


  • Light snow breaks out in most areas later this afternoon
    • Very minor accumulations initially from central nj north
  • Heavier batch of precipitation then arrives late tonight into the early morning hours
    • Rain for south jersey, icy mix to rain for central NJ and some additional snow accumulations to ice for north/NW Jersey
    • More the north in new England more snow than ice falls
  • Storm ends from west to east after daybreak on Monday

Here is the impact map (unchanged from yesterday)..



Initial batch of very light snow arrives later this afternoon...


There is then a break in the precipitation before the heavier batch arrives late tonight. You can see below how its rain to the south and snow tries to hold on initially in northwest counties of NJ into New England..

At this time northern nj and southern new England needs to be on alert for some icing.

Eventually warm air overwhelms and any snow that was falling in southern areas of the snow zone changes to ice and rain towards daybreak...

 
When it is all said and done this particular high resolution model shows a decent idea of what can occur and it not far off from my map....


Notice enhancement in snow totals in the mountain ranges. That is why I have 5'+ for those areas. 

Next update later this evening as the final data comes in!

Saturday, December 10, 2016

Saturday Morning: Updated Forecast for Sunday Night-Monday

Good morning. As new data comes in, I have adjusted my preliminary forecast to hone in on the final details behind Sunday night's storm system. Latest data has made me shift amounts lower and more to the north. Overall, this event looks like it will be weaker than initially modeled... 

Summary:

  • Light snow breaks out Sunday night in northern areas (light blue, dark blue)
    • To the south precipitation arrives later and as a mixed bag in pink zone and plain rain (very light if any) in the green zone
  • Any accumulations in the pink and blue zone happen by early morning before a change over to ice/rain
  • When it is all said and done there will be travel impacts ranging from minor to moderate as you head north from the pink into the dark blue zone
  • The storm should be gone by late morning for most areas

Latest model guidance has weakened the disturbance causing this storm. Images below show the modeled disturbance from yesterday (top) vs today's projection..





Small difference but big outcome. Notice how in the bottom image the energy is more spread out. This causes a storm that is weaker and further north....

Old model run at the surface...


New run...

Notice the low pressure center is weaker and further north. This brings the thermal gradient further north as well. The result is a weaker system with less snowfall.

At the end of the day this does not look to be a big deal. I do urge caution however, we still have 36 hours to go. Things can still trend stronger. I will keep an eye on this.

Next update tonight.