Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Tuesday Morning: Brief but Brutal Shot of Arctic Air Upcoming, Snow Saturday, Question Marks After

Good morning. We have a very interesting week ahead. Cold temps give way to bitterly cold temps by Thursday and Friday with the chance at snow changing to rain Saturday. Our old friend the polar vortex will briefly pass by Thursday and Friday causing a crash in temperatures. Here is a summary of the upcoming period..

First, here were the results from Sunday night's storm vs my forecast from Saturday morning..

 You guys can be the judge.

Now to the Summary:
  • Chilly temperatures through tomorrow with highs reaching the upper 30's to low 40's
  • A lobe of the polar vortex brings along with it an arctic front that will pass through the area Thursday and Friday
    • Highs will be in the low 20's to teens north for both days!
    • Low temperatures will be in the teens to single digits!
  • Along with the cold, Thursday could feature a few snow showers
  • A storm system approaches from the west Saturday morning
    • Initially snow can break out potentially accumulating a few inches in most spots by mid morning
    • Warm air surges in and the snow changes to rain
  • Following this weekend, the long range pattern is up in the air
    • Evidence things can moderate through the holidays
So lets take a look at all of this. A lobe of the polar vortex moves through Thursday and Friday...

This brings with it bitterly cold temperatures for Thursday and Friday (highs in teens to low 20's south). Check out the temperatures at 7am Friday morning..

As this cold air approaches Thursday snow squalls can break out in the interior. Some of these may make it towards the coastal states. The warm lakes enhance all of this..

Then the fun starts as  a storm system approaches from the west Saturday morning..

Given the cold air in place, this storm should produce snow Saturday morning for most areas. A few inches of accumulation is possible Saturday morning. 

However, since we do not have the set up to keep this cold air locked in, warm air eventually surges in and changes the snow to some rain by Saturday afternoon..

Image below shows the flow of this surge of warmer air from the south..

Following this weekend things then remain up in the air for the fate of this weather pattern. Next week is a wild card as a few cold shots could produce some more back and forth weather (rain/snow) as low pressure waves may develop along the boundary of warm and cold air. 

There is absolutely evidence that things moderate as we get towards Christmas. Overall, the upper air pattern does not look favorable for any big storm development towards the big cities..

The models have been consistent in developing a trough of low pressure in the west and a ridge of high pressure in the east for the long range. Also they have been showing lower pressures over the poles. This means moderating temperatures with low chances of snow if verified. At this time I am confident in this relaxation of the weather pattern in the long range. The big question mark is will things reload for January. We honestly just have to wait and see. These long range models have been very poor as of late.

HERE IS THE IMPORTANT POINT...we need to take on things one at at a time this winter. We got this arctic shot and storm system for late week. Lets get through this first then focus on next week then focus on week 2+. I have a big feeling that these models will be completely spastic the longer out you go. If you just follow them run after run you will become spastic as well.

A steady hand should prevail this year.

More to come tomorrow. 


  1. With every storm so far it's cold, then-wet snow to mix or light rain, then cold or moderate temps. This is what has happened in the Corning-Elmira-Binghamton, NY regions and other areas of the Mid Atlantic. The snows are so wet it's gone off the ground for the most part in 2 or 3 days-unless you are in the mountain areas. Cold and storms have been progressive in the East. The weather for the NW US and Mid West seems to be unfolding as predicted. However, I have to say that in the Eastern US I thought a lot of blocking was forecast that would limit the progressive pattern. Even Judah Cohen, from AER Research is all over the place with the forecast and seems to be wobbling (worse than the Polar Vortex) with uncertainty on the East Coast forecast going forward. For once can't we get a cold and snowy winter, without the threat of warm and rain mixing or changing to snow- to rain with every storm that comes along? Perhaps, that only happens in Siberia.

    1. Need the blocking very badly or its more of the same..if I don't see it develop again over next few weeks then we will have issues. Only good news is models are really struggling with this pattern so anything can happen.