Thursday, December 1, 2016

Thursday Morning Note: A Lot to Process

Quick post today. Last night the new Canadian seasonal model came out and it did not support a cold stormy winter for the Northeast. Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell.com pointed this out and it made me do some comparing to what other models have been showing. The alarming thing I found is that this model looks almost identical to the United States (CFSv2) seasonal model. You can see the comparison below..


This is concerning and needs to be considered. However, it is not time to throw in the towel. We are going to find out very very soon if these models have any merit as we are entering a two week period where the seasonal transition expected in the winter forecast should start to take hold. If it does not or if I see no evidence of that happening then I will have to update my thoughts and forecast for the winter. 

The long range models going out to 16 days are showing some impressive cold move through the entire country by the middle of next week....


As I mentioned on Tuesday, a few storms will also develop as well. At this time they look to be initially rain but as we get past the 15th of the month the seasonal transition could easily turn the tables and bring the white stuff fairly quickly.

Just some food for thought. I am not changing my forecast just pointing out some new data that just came in. 

Things cool down this weekend, briefly warm up then should cool down again more significantly towards the end for next week. I will have more details on all of this before week end. 

Thanks for reading. 

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