Saturday, December 24, 2016

Merry Christmas! Snow Chances Increase at Turn of the Year

Merry Christmas everyone! I discussed in my video the other day how models are now starting to pick up on a colder pattern heading into January. I also mentioned how we need some blocking or a -NAO (high pressure over Greenland) to give the mid-Atlantic the shot at snow. Models have continued their trend and it looks like we will at least have the chance at the white stuff in the 1st if not 2nd week of January.

Summary:


  • Warmer than normal air through Thursday of this week
  • A storm then could develop Thursday into Friday producing snow for interior New England bringing colder than normal air in its wake
  • The upper air pattern is supporting this cold to become more sustained as January gets underway due to high pressure over Greenland and Alaska 
  • Mid-Atlantic and east coast needs to keep an eye on early next week as the pattern COULD be favorable for storm development


As we approach next weekend, signals are there for a potential storm to develop for the interior. The mid-Atlantic and coast will be too warm ahead and the set up is not ideal for that region. You can see below how I outlined the factors that can produce this storm for the interior..

From European ensemble..


Keep in mind the euro ensemble has over amplified things this year so take this with a grain of salt. However, the threat is def there for the NE ski areas. 

Following the passage of this wave, then things really can get interesting as the pattern POTENTIALY gets  more faorable as a block can develop over Greenland..


 I show what needs to change on this image with the dotted lines for a storm threat. What I like to see is a well established block over Greenland (-NAO) and a ridge of high pressure into AK (-EPO) feeding cold into the pattern. Think of the -EPO as the feeder and the -NAO as the preserver of this cold over the east.  We will have to watch how this evolves as we head to early next week.

Thats all for now, my confidence is growing that action looms. Lets see how it plays out.

Merry Christmas!

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