Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Wednesday Morning: Flake or Two Possible Extreme NW NJ, Otherwise Rain

Keep in mine we are really splitting hairs here as it is mainly going to rain tomorrow. However, for you snow nuts out there who might need their fix, it is possible that a few flakes fly NW of interstate 80 at the higher elevations tonight before a quick changeover to liquid. No accumulation expected. 

A potent upper level short wave and its associated low pressure system approach the region tonight..

You can see below the GFS model vailid at 8 am. I drew out what is going on. We have a departing area of high pressure (giving us the current cold air) and an approaching low that is bringing with it warm air. Initially (only for a few hours) the cold air tries to dam or hold on in areas of NW NJ, Northern PA, and southern NY state. This means AT ELEVATIONS OVER 800FT some flakes can fly for a short period of time. 

Up in the mountains of New England this looks to stay mostly snow in the mountains.

You can see by mid morning tomorrow it is rain everywhere except ski areas up north...

This is just one model projection but I have looked at all of them and I think the GFS model has the right idea here. 

Moving into Halloween weekend, temps do stay on the chilly side before warming up by next week into the 60's. 

After the 1st week of November the cold returns and it might be with a vengeance. Stay tuned for that evolution. 

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